Hello, hello!
We made it! It’s finally Draft Day. It’s been a bit since the last newsletter (had to hit the pause button for a couple of weeks there) - but I figured I’d get back into your inbox one final time before the action kicks off tonight.
I’ll have a LOT more to come with some draft recaps after downloading ALL of the action the next few days, including team-building philosophy takeaways, position trends, and more. I plan on doing some posts that are position-specific with traits that matter most to me and my evaluation process at those spots. Obviously we’ll start digging in on the 2027 Class as well. I have lots of ideas, so stay subscribed to this newsletter and continue with me on the journey to NEXT year’s NFL Draft.
Alright - to tonight - we have a lot of questions to answer. Who is going where? Which players are being talked about in which spots? What positions could each team be targeting? How have those trends evolved over the last month and - more importantly - the last week?
To answer those questions (and others), I’ve canvased EVERY major mock draft from some of the most notable analysts in the media space. I cited the analysts below, and this survey includes every mock that they’ve done from the end of the NFL regular season until today (75 in total). We’ll do this in a Mock Draft-style exercise, looking at just the Top 25, and the ‘pick’ will be whoever the latest buzz points to, and I’ll throw some extra news and notes in at the end of each team.
Let’s get this going!
1 - Las Vegas - QB Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)
Pick Results:
74 - QB Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)
1 - QB Dante Moore (Oregon)
The only analyst to NOT mock Mendoza in this spot was the Ringer’s Todd McShay way back in the first week of January. This pick is Mendoza. Signed. Sealed. Delivered.
2 - NY Jets - EDGE David Bailey (Texas Tech)
Pick Results:
Top 2 Most Common Selections:
40 - EDGE/LB Arvell Reese (Ohio State)
28 - EDGE David Bailey (Texas Tech)
Results Since April 1st:
21 - EDGE David Bailey (Texas Tech)
13 - EDGE/LB Arvell Reese (Ohio State)
Results Since April 16th:
16 - EDGE David Bailey (Texas Tech)
7 - EDGE/LB Arvell Reese (Ohio State)
This has been a big topic of conversation and clearly is a two-horse race. There are still plenty of notable analysts and reporters who think that this pick will be Arvell Reese, but it’s been a huge swing towards Bailey of late (I am in that camp as well).
3 - Arizona - T Francis Mauigoa (Miami)
Top 4 Most Common Selections:
27 - T Francis Maugioa (Miami)
15 - EDGE/LB Arvell Reese (Ohio State)
12 - RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)
11 - EDGE David Bailey (Texas Tech)
Results Since April 1st:
10 - T Francis Maugioa (Miami)
9 - EDGE/LB Arvell Reese (Ohio State)
7 - RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)
5 - EDGE David Bailey (Texas Tech)
2 - T Spencer Fano (Utah)
1 - QB Ty Simpson (Alabama), T Monroe Freeling (Georgia)
Results Since April 16th:
8 - T Francis Maugioa (Miami)
7 - RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)
6 - EDGE/LB Arvell Reese (Ohio State)
3 - EDGE David Bailey (Texas Tech)
1 - T Spencer Fano (Utah)
Of the Mauigoa selections since last week, almost all of them have come via trade down - but I do think it’s notable that he is still the most prevalent pick in this exercise. The general consensus seems to be: if they stay at No. 3, the pick is Love. If they trade down, look for Mauigoa. There’s been significant chatter behind the scenes about two teams potentially moving into that spot for Reese - the Chiefs and the Saints (who I first heard were in the mix yesterday afternoon). Do I think it’s a lock that they can get something done? No - but I felt good enough to get them done in both of my most recent mock drafts.
4 - Tennessee - LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State)
Top 4 Most Common Selections:
19 - RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame), EDGE David Bailey (Texas Tech)
15 - LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State)
9 - EDGE/LB Arvell Reese (Ohio State)
Results Since April 1st:
13 - RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)
12 - LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State)
6 - EDGE David Bailey (Texas Tech)
2 - EDGE/LB Arvell Reese (Ohio State)
1 - EDGE Rueben Bain JR (Miami)
Results Since April 16th:
11 - LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State)
6 - RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)
4 - EDGE David Bailey (Texas Tech)
2 - EDGE/LB Arvell Reese (Ohio State)
It’s been a HUGE swing for Styles in the last week in these sharp mocks after most of the momentum was pointed towards Love. Now - a lot of that has to do with the fact that more mocks have had Love going at No. 3 during that span as well. So what would they do if they had a shot at both players? I’ve talked with two people who have intimate knowledge of that building, and one said Styles while the other said Love. Media reports have pointed to it being split, internally, as well. I went with Styles in my latest mock draft.
5 - NY Giants - RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)
Top 5 Most Common Selections:
15 - S Caleb Downs (Ohio State), LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State)
14 - RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)
10 - WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State)
9 - T Francis Maugioa (Miami)
Results Since April 1st:
10 - RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)
8 - S Caleb Downs (Ohio State), T Francis Maugioa (Miami)
6 - LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State)
3 - EDGE/LB Arvell Reese (Ohio State)
1 - WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State), T Spencer Fano (Utah)
Results Since April 16th:
8 - RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)
6 - S Caleb Downs (Ohio State)
4 - T Francis Maugioa (Miami)
3 - EDGE/LB Arvell Reese (Ohio State), LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State)
1 - WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State), T Spencer Fano (Utah)
This is another one where we have seen a big swing. It does sound like this is Love’s floor in the draft, with his range being No. 3 through No. 5. The feeling I’ve gotten through conversations is that they like Downs more than Styles among the Ohio State defenders, which plays out in these mocks as well. Given that the coach has the last name Harbaugh, I can’t shake the feeling that this could be an offensive lineman here. There has been some thought that Arvell Reese could fall to them in this spot, and I do NOT think that’s out of the question (if Arizona passes on him at three, I’m not positive he’s a perfect fit for Saleh at four). That said, I’m not buying them actually taking him. I think they’re trying to drum up a market for a team like Kansas City or New Orleans to move up to take him at that position. I find it hard to believe the Giants would take Reese.
6 - Cleveland - T Spencer Fano (Utah)
Top 5 Most Common Selections:
24 - T Spencer Fano (Utah)
15 - T Monroe Freeling (Georgia)
14 - WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State)
10 - T Francis Mauigoa (Miami)
7 - T Kadyn Proctor (Alabama)
Results Since April 1st:
14 - T Spencer Fano (Utah)
6 - WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State), T Kadyn Proctor (Alabama)
5 - T Monroe Freeling (Georgia)
3 - T Francis Mauigoa (Miami)
Results Since April 16th:
11 - T Spencer Fano (Utah)
5 - WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State)
3 - T Kadyn Proctor (Alabama), T Monroe Freeling (Georgia)
1 - T Francis Mauigoa (Miami)
There was early buzz connecting the Browns to Fano, and it has only picked up in recent weeks. That said, I know they want to deal out. Here’s my read on it: I think the Browns have all of these linemen grouped together, and they’re fine with staying put and taking the best one, but they’d also rather just take an extra pick and then take whoever can fall to them in a trade down. I’ve heard them connected to Proctor and Freeling, but I don’t think they’d do it at No. 6. With Mauigoa’s injury re-check, it would make sense to float out to the media that you’re going to take Fano if you want someone to come up and take him instead. Would Kansas City bite? Miami? I haven’t been able to find a suitable partner, so if they stay put I think they just take Fano and figure it out. They’ve added a lot of versatile offensive linemen this spring and they’ll get the best five out on the field.
7 - Washington - WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State)
Top 5 Most Common Selections:
13 - LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State), EDGE Rueben Bain JR (Miami)
11 - WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State)
9 - CB Mansoor Delane (LSU)
8 - S Caleb Downs (Ohio State)
Results Since April 1st:
7 - CB Mansoor Delane (LSU), WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State)
6 - LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State)
4 - RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)
3 - S Caleb Downs (Ohio State)
2 - EDGE Rueben Bain JR (Miami)
1 - WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State), WR Makai Lemon (USC), WR Omar Cooper JR (Indiana), CB Colton Hood (Tennessee)
Results Since April 16th:
6 - WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State)
5 - CB Mansoor Delane (LSU)
4 - LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State)
2 - S Caleb Downs (Ohio State), RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)
1 - WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State), WR Makai Lemon (USC), WR Omar Cooper JR (Indiana), CB Colton Hood (Tennessee)
There’s been a lot of reporting connecting Washington and Sonny Styles, and a lot of the local beat reporting has pointed his direction. I lean more towards that being smoke. I think this team is actually more focused on WR and CB, but most likely in a trade down. I had them dealing out in both of my most recent mock drafts. How far they go will determine which position and player they end up with, and I think a lot of these results in the last week tell that story.
8 - New Orleans - WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)
Top 5 Most Common Selections:
15 - WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)
13 - RB Jeremyah Love (Notre Dame)
12 - WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State)
8 - EDGE Rueben Bain JR (Miami)
6 - CB Mansoor Delane (LSU)
Results Since April 1st:
9 - WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)
6 - WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State), EDGE Rueben Bain JR (Miami)
4 - S Caleb Downs (Ohio State), CB Mansoor Delane (LSU)
1 - WR Makai Lemon (USC), TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)
Results Since April 16th:
8 - WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)
4 - EDGE Rueben Bain JR (Miami)
3 - EDGE/LB Arvell Reese (Ohio State), CB Mansoor Delane (LSU)
2 - WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State), S Caleb Downs (Ohio State)
1 - WR Makai Lemon (USC)
We’ve talked about the possibility of them trading up for Reese, and two mocks have had that happen in the last week (with one extra eight days ago as well). If not, I think this is a wide receiver. I think the pecking order is Tate over Tyson, but it could easily be flipped as well. If the wide receiver run starts ahead of them and they miss out on both? I think that’s when Delane or Downs would be in play, and I think it would be in that order.
9 - Kansas City - EDGE Rueben Bain JR (Miami)
Top 5 Most Common Selections:
27 - EDGE Rueben Bain JR (Miami)
7 - WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State)
6 - WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State), CB Mansoor Delane (LSU), T Francis Mauigoa (Miami)
Results Since April 1st:
16 - EDGE Rueben Bain JR (Miami)
5 - WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)
3 - EDGE/LB Arvell Reese (Ohio State), T Francis Mauigoa (Miami), CB Mansoor Delane (LSU)
1 - S Caleb Downs (Ohio State), T Spencer Fano (Utah), WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State), CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee)
Results Since April 16th:
11 - EDGE Rueben Bain JR (Miami)
3 - CB Mansoor Delane (LSU), EDGE/LB Arvell Reese (Ohio State)
2 - T Francis Mauigoa (Miami), WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)
1 - S Caleb Downs (Ohio State), WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State)
The consensus here is Bain, and I think it fits for a variety of reasons. I’ve heard just as much buzz about Kansas City moving up the board as I have for them moving down the board, though. If they move down, it would not shock me if they use the No. 29 pick to move back up to select two players in the middle of the first. They have a lot of areas they can go between pass rusher, pass catcher, cornerback and offensive tackle; these are premium spots and I think the Chiefs will try to get two good players for those spots to replenish the roster for the future.
10 - NY Giants - S Caleb Downs (Ohio State)
Pick Results:
5 - WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State), S Caleb Downs (Ohio State)
3 - G Vega Ioane (Penn State)
2 - WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State)
1 - CB Mansoor Delane (LSU), T Francis Mauigoa (Miami), EDGE Keldric Faulk (Auburn)
Obviously all of these picks have come since the Giants traded for the selection last weekend in the Dexter Lawrence deal. There has been a lot of reporting connecting the Giants to Tyson. I’m still a bit dubious of that pairing, personally, but I relented in my final mock draft today. I actually think I lean more towards this being Downs (if available, which he is in this exercise) or the best offensive lineman on the board - namely Penn State G Vega Ioane (this is his draft ceiling). I have heard to not discount Delane in this spot, though. I think he’s in play as well depending on how the board falls.
11 - Miami - CB Mansoor Delane (LSU)
Top 5 Most Common Selections:
14 - CB Mansoor Delane (LSU)
13 - T Francis Mauigoa (Miami)
7 - EDGE Rueben Bain JR (Miami)
6 - T Spencer Fano (Utah), CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee), TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)
Results Since April 1st:
7 - CB Mansoor Delane (LSU), T Francis Mauigoa (Miami)
4 - EDGE Rueben Bain JR (Miami)
3 - T Spencer Fano (Utah), WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State)
1 - CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee), EDGE Keldric Faulk (Auburn), LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State), S Caleb Downs (Ohio State), WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)
Results Since April 16th:
5 - T Francis Mauigoa (Miami)
4 - EDGE Rueben Bain JR (Miami)
3 - CB Mansoor Delane (LSU)
2 - T Spencer Fano (Utah)
1 - CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee), S Caleb Downs (Ohio State), LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State), WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State), WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)
This is a pivot point, because I think this is the best player available for a team that is deep in the rebuilding phase. The most common pick has been Delane, overall. Down the stretch this has been the floor for both of the local kids in Mauigoa and Bain, but they’re unavailable in this exercise. I would be very surprised by a pass catcher here. I think it’s the ceiling for Keldric Faulk. I’m not sure that Bain would be the pick here were he to sneak out of the top ten.
12 - Dallas - LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State)
Top 5 Most Common Selections:
21 - LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State)
13 - CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee)
10 - CB Mansoor Delane (LSU)
9 - S Caleb Downs (Ohio State)
8 - EDGE Keldric Faulk (Auburn)
Results Since April 1st:
8 - LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State)
7 - S Caleb Downs (Ohio State)
4 - CB Mansoor Delane (LSU)
3 - EDGE Keldric Faulk (Auburn), S Dillon Thieneman (Oregon), CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee)
2 - CB Colton Hood (Tennessee), WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State), EDGE David Bailey (Texas Tech)
1 - EDGE/LB Arvell Reese (Ohio State)
Results Since April 16th:
5 - S Caleb Downs (Ohio State)
4 - CB Mansoor Delane (LSU)
3 - EDGE Keldric Faulk (Auburn), LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State), S Dillon Thieneman (Oregon)
2 - CB Colton Hood (Tennessee), WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)
1 - CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee), EDGE/LB Arvell Reese (Ohio State)
There was a lot of buzz about the Cowboys trading up to get Styles post-free agency, but that has since cooled down. I think a big jump up the board is unlikely for this team. A short skip? Not out of the question (I had them do it for Downs in today’s mock). There’s been some late smoke on the receiver position, and depending on how the board shakes out, I guess we should not rule that out. But all signs seem to be pointing defense here. I would be pretty surprised if Thieneman was the pick at 12, though.
13 - LA Rams (from ATL) - WR Makai Lemon (USC)
Top 6 Most Common Selections:
33 - WR Makai Lemon (USC)
7 - WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)
5 - T Spencer Fano (Utah), CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee)
4 - T Monroe Freeling (Georgia), CB Mansoor Delane (LSU)
Results Since April 1st:
21 - WR Makai Lemon (USC)
3 - T Monroe Freeling (Georgia)
2 - WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State), WR Omar Cooper JR (Indiana)
1 - WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State), QB Ty Simpson (Alabama), TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon), T Spencer Fano (Utah), G Vega Ioane (Penn State), WR Denzel Boston (Washington)
Results Since April 16th:
12 - WR Makai Lemon (USC)
3 - T Monroe Freeling (Georgia)
2 - WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State)
1 - WR Omar Cooper JR (Indiana), QB Ty Simpson (Alabama), TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon), T Spencer Fano (Utah), G Vega Ioane (Penn State), WR Denzel Boston (Washington)
Lemon has been the overwhelming favorite here, but there’s been late steam about them going elsewhere. Offensive line? Quarterback? There’s not a long track record of recent first-round picks with this team, which makes them tough to peg.
14 - Baltimore - G Vega Ioane (Penn State)
Top 6 Most Common Selections:
26 - G Vega Ioane (Penn State)
11 - T Spencer Fano (Utah)
7 - TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)
5 - WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)
4 - EDGE Rueben Bain JR (Miami), T Francis Mauigoa (Miami)
Results Since April 1st:
12 - G Vega Ioane (Penn State)
7 - TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)
4 - T Spencer Fano (Utah)
3 - EDGE Rueben Bain JR (Miami)
2 - WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)
1 - OL Kadyn Proctor (Alabama), CB Mansoor Delane (LSU), WR Denzel Boston (Washington), DL Caleb Banks (Florida), CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee)
Results Since April 16th:
10 - G Vega Ioane (Penn State)
3 - TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon), T Spencer Fano (Utah)
2 - EDGE Rueben Bain JR (Miami)
1 - OL Kadyn Proctor (Alabama), CB Mansoor Delane (LSU), WR Denzel Boston (Washington), DL Caleb Banks (Florida)
General consensus is pointing to offensive line here, with the heavy majority pointing at Ioane. I think Sadiq is absolutely in play, I’d put him second in the pecking order based off my instinct. My ears have been perked up for them and cornerback as well based off conversations.
15 - Tampa Bay - EDGE Akheem Mesidor (Miami)
Top 3 Most Common Selections:
19 - EDGE Akheem Mesidor (Miami)
15 - TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)
8 - G Vega Ioane (Penn State)
Results Since April 1st:
12 - EDGE Akheem Mesidor (Miami)
9 - TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)
6 - G Vega Ioane (Penn State)
2 - OL Kadyn Proctor (Alabama), CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee)
1 - CB Mansoor Delane (LSU), EDGE Keldric Faulk (Auburn), EDGE TJ Parker (Clemson)
Results Since April 16th:
9 - EDGE Akheem Mesidor (Miami)
7 - TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)
3 - G Vega Ioane (Penn State)
2 - OL Kadyn Proctor (Alabama)
1 - CB Mansoor Delane (LSU), CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee)
Mesidor is the chic pick … but I question that one. I don’t think it turns out that way. GM Jason Licht catches us off guard often. Ears to the sidewalk tell me to expect an offensive lineman, so I’ve had guys like Ioane and Proctor earmarked here, personally. I do think it’s a sneaky Sadiq team. I think they’re a sneaky Faulk team as well. Corner would surprise me a little since they have had high picks and some decent money invested in the position already.
16 - NY Jets (from IND) - WR Omar Cooper JR (Indiana)
Top 5 Most Common Selections:
19 - WR Makai Lemon (USC)
12 - WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)
11 - WR Omar Cooper JR (Indiana)
6 - WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State), QB Ty Simpson (Alabama)
Results Since April 1st:
7 - WR Makai Lemon (USC)
6 - WR Omar Cooper JR (Indiana)
4 - WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)
3 - WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State)
2 - WR Denzel Boston (Washington), QB Ty Simpson (Alabama)
1 - CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee), WR KC Concepcion (Texas A&M), OL Vega Ioane (Penn State), DL Peter Woods (Clemson)
Results Since April 16th:
9 - WR Omar Cooper JR (Indiana)
6 - WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State), WR Makai Lemon (USC)
3 - WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)
2 - WR Denzel Boston (Washington)
1 - CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee), OL Vega Ioane (Penn State), QB Ty Simpson (Alabama)
Conventional wisdom points to this pick being a wide receiver, and that’s the overwhelming favorite. Cooper has caught a lot of steam, with a lot of whispers that he could go higher than we think in the media. They have a lot of picks, both this year and next, and I think they could try and use some of their extra picks for Friday to move up for a receiver in the top ten. That’s on the table, but I’ve also heard about them as a trade out team as well, depending on how the board falls.
17 - Detroit - OL Kadyn Proctor (Alabama)
Top 5 Most Common Selections:
20 - OL Kadyn Proctor (Alabama)
15 - T Monroe Freeling (Georgia)
7 - EDGE Akheem Mesidor (Miami)
6 - OL Spencer Fano (Utah), T Caleb Lomu (Utah)
Results Since April 1st:
11 - OL Kadyn Proctor (Alabama)
9 - T Monroe Freeling (Georgia)
4 - OL Spencer Fano (Utah)
2 - EDGE Keldric Faulk (Auburn), T Blake Miller (Clemson)
1 - EDGE Rueben Bain JR (Miami), EDGE Akheem Mesidor (Miami), G Vega Ioane (Penn State), EDGE TJ Parker (Clemson), OL Max Iheanachor (Arizona State), S Dillon Thieneman (Oregon)
Results Since April 16th:
8 - OL Kadyn Proctor (Alabama)
5 - T Monroe Freeling (Georgia)
3 - OL Spencer Fano (Utah)
2 - EDGE Keldric Faulk (Auburn)
1 - EDGE Rueben Bain JR (Miami), T Blake Miller (Clemson), EDGE Akheem Mesidor (Miami), OL Max Iheanachor (Arizona State), S Dillon Thieneman (Oregon)
The most popular picks have been offensive tackles for the Lions, but I have a sneaky suspicion that this team may go with an edge rusher, and they are known to surprise us with a trade up. There was a report on Thursday morning from ESPN pointing to this possibility, and I actually put it in the mock draft that I put together on Wednesday night for a move up for Bain. I think it’s all on the table for the Lions and Brad Holmes.
18 - Minnesota - S Dillon Thieneman (Oregon)
Top 4 Most Common Selections:
28 - S Dillon Thieneman (Oregon)
9 - CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee)
5 - TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)
5 - S Emmanuel McNeill-Warren (Toledo)
Results Since April 1st:
13 - S Dillon Thieneman (Oregon)
4 - TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)
3 - CB Chris Johnson (San Diego State)
2 - CB Colton Hood (Tennessee), CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee), DL Peter Woods (Clemson), DL Kayden McDonald (Ohio State)
1 - CB Mansoor Delane (LSU), EDGE Keldric Faulk (Auburn), LB CJ Allen (Georgia), S Emmanuel McNeill-Warren (Toledo), DL Caleb Banks (Florida)
Results Since April 16th:
9 - S Dillon Thieneman (Oregon)
3 - CB Chris Johnson (San Diego State)
2 - TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon), DL Peter Woods (Clemson), DL Kayden McDonald (Ohio State), CB Colton Hood (Tennessee)
1 - CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee), LB CJ Allen (Georgia)
Thieneman is the runaway favorite here and has been since the Combine, essentially. Kevin O’Connell is calling the shots here, and when a coach is given that power it can be tricky to predict, sometimes. I tend to drift away from consensus on picks like this - so I actually do not think this will be Thieneman here. I’ve heard to look for a cornerback (I had Chris Johnson in there for my latest mock draft) here. My spidey sense has my ears perked up for Sadiq if he is available. Woods and Faulk fit the slashing style of the Brian Flores defense as well.
19 - Carolina - TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)
Top 5 Most Common Selections:
14 - TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)
8 - S Dillon Thieneman (Oregon), WR KC Concepcion (Texas A&M)
6 - EDGE Akheem Mesidor (Miami), DL Peter Woods (Clemson)
Results Since April 1st:
9 - TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)
8 - S Dillon Thieneman (Oregon)
7 - WR KC Concepcion (Texas A&M)
3 - T Monroe Freeling (Georgia)
2 - S Emmanuel McNeill-Warren (Toledo)
1 - WR Omar Cooper JR (Indiana), OL Kadyn Proctor (Alabama), DL Kayden McDonald (Ohio State), WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)
Results Since April 16th:
7 - TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)
6 - S Dillon Thieneman (Oregon)
5 - WR KC Concepcion (Texas A&M)
2 - T Monroe Freeling (Georgia)
1 - WR Omar Cooper JR (Indiana), S Emmanuel McNeill-Warren (Toledo)
Sadiq has become the favorite here, but I think he’s actually the second-most likely addition. I think if Thieneman is available, this is where he ends up. After Sadiq, I’d look at the receivers, Concepcion and Cooper. Depending on who you ask, you’ll hear differences on which of the two the team prefers. My gut tells me it’s Concepcion, the local product from the Charlotte area.
20 - Dallas (from GB) - EDGE Keldric Faulk (Auburn)
Top 5 Most Common Selections:
8 - EDGE Keldric Faulk (Auburn), EDGE Akheem Mesidor (Miami), CB Avieon Terrell (Clemson)
6 - CB Colton Hood (Tennessee)
5 - LB CJ Allen (Georgia)
Results Since April 1st:
6 - EDGE Keldric Faulk (Auburn)
3 - CB Chris Johnson (San Diego State), EDGE Malachi Lawrence (UCF), EDGE Akheem Mesidor (Miami)
2 - S Dillon Thieneman (Oregon), CB Colton Hood (Tennessee), CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee), CB Avieon Terrell (Clemson), LB Jacob Rodriguez (Texas Tech)
1 - S Emmanuel McNeill-Warren (Toledo), EDGE Zion Young (Missouri)
Results Since April 16th:
5 - EDGE Keldric Faulk (Auburn)
3 - CB Chris Johnson (San Diego State), EDGE Malachi Lawrence (UCF)
2 - EDGE Akheem Mesidor (Miami, CB Avieon Terrell (Clemson), LB Jacob Rodriguez (Texas Tech)
1 - S Dillon Thieneman (Oregon), CB Colton Hood (Tennessee), CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee), S Emmanuel McNeill-Warren (Toledo), EDGE Zion Young (Missouri)
Faulk has been connected to Dallas at both 12 and 20, and I do think there’s a pretty good chance he ends up on this defense. I’ve heard Dallas is a good bet to trade out of this slot all together. Obviously a lot of this hinges on what happens at No. 12. I’ve also heard wide receiver as a possibility at this spot as well, but we have not seen mocks go that direction.
21 - Pittsburgh - T Blake Miller (Clemson)
Top 4 Most Common Selections:
12 - G Vega Ioane (Penn State)
9 - QB Ty Simpson (Alabama)
8 - WR Omar Cooper JR (Indiana)
7 - T Blake Miller (Clemson)
Results Since April 1st:
8 - G Vega Ioane (Penn State)
5 - WR Omar Cooper JR (Indiana), T Blake Miller (Clemson)
3 - T Max Iheanachor (Arizona State)
2 - WR KC Concepcion (Texas A&M), QB Ty Simpson (Alabama)
1 - T Monroe Freeling (Georgia), OL Kadyn Proctor (Alabama), EDGE Keldric Faulk (Auburn), WR Makai Lemon (USC), WR Denzel Boston (Washington), TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon), S Emmanuel McNeill-Warren (Toledo), OL Spencer Fano (Utah), EDGE TJ Parker (Clemson)
Results Since April 16th:
4 - G Vega Ioane (Penn State)
3 - WR Omar Cooper JR (Indiana), T Blake Miller (Clemson), T Max Iheanachor (Arizona State)
2 - WR KC Concepcion (Texas A&M)
1 - T Monroe Freeling (Georgia), OL Kadyn Proctor (Alabama), EDGE Keldric Faulk (Auburn), WR Makai Lemon (USC), WR Denzel Boston (Washington), TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon), S Emmanuel McNeill-Warren (Toledo), OL Spencer Fano (Utah)
Since the Combine I’ve been hearing ‘receiver and offensive tackle’ for this team to start the draft, and it seems like the most likely outcome here is they start with the latter and take the receiver later. Miller checks a lot of their boxes and does make a lot of sense. Whenever you talk with anyone inside the league about him late in the first round you hear ‘I think he’ll go more towards the middle.’ I would not rule out Cooper, however, if he slides to this point. The wild card? Keep an eye on Peter Woods here.
22 - LA Chargers - G Chase Bisontis (Texas A&M)
Top 3 Most Common Selections:
13 - G Vega Ioane (Penn State)
8 - DL Peter Woods (Clemson)
6 - DL Caleb Banks (Florida)
Results Since April 1st:
4 - DL Peter Woods (Clemson), EDGE Akheem Mesidor (Miami)
3 - G Chase Bisontis (Texas A&M), CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee), DL Kayden McDonald (Ohio State), EDGE TJ Parker (Clemson)
2 - EDGE Keldric Faulk (Auburn), EDGE Malachi Lawrence (UCF), G Vega Ioane (Penn State), DL Caleb Banks (Florida)
Results Since April 16th:
3 - G Chase Bisontis (Texas A&M), CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee), DL Kayden McDonald (Ohio State), EDGE Akheem Mesidor (Miami), EDGE TJ Parker (Clemson)
2 - DL Peter Woods (Clemson), EDGE Keldric Faulk (Auburn), CB Avieon Terrell (Clemson)
1 - EDGE Malachi Lawrence (UCF), G Vega Ioane (Penn State), EDGE Cashius Howell (Texas A&M), DL Caleb Banks (Florida), WR Denzel Boston (Washington), CB Chris Johnson (San Diego State), T Blake Miller (Clemson)
This was heavily streamlined on Ioane early but as the process has unfolded, it’s become clear that he is unlikely to be available. Now the opinions are all over the place. I do think a trade down is VERY likely if they can get something done. Line of scrimmage is most likely the way they go, so it’s a matter of who is the best available lineman if/when they move.
23 - Philadelphia - T Monroe Freeling (Georgia)
Top 5 Most Common Selections:
11 - T Monroe Freeling (Georgia), T Max Iheanachor (Arizona State)
10 - T Blake Miller (Clemson)
9 - OL Kadyn Proctor (Alabama)
7 - TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)
Results Since April 1st:
8 - T Monroe Freeling (Georgia)
7 - T Max Iheanachor (Arizona State)
6 - T Blake Miller (Clemson)
4 - OL Kadyn Proctor (Alabama)
3 - T Caleb Lomu (Utah)
2 - WR Denzel Boston (Washington)
1 - TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon), WR Omar Cooper JR (Indiana), WR Makai Lemon (USC), EDGE Cashius Howell (Texas A&M)
Results Since April 16th:
7 - T Monroe Freeling (Georgia)
5 - T Blake Miller (Clemson)
4 - T Max Iheanachor (Arizona State)
2 - OL Kadyn Proctor (Alabama), T Caleb Lomu (Utah)
1 - TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon), WR Denzel Boston (Washington), WR Omar Cooper JR (Indiana)
Obviously the overwhelming favorite here is an offensive lineman, and for good reason. Most mocks, especially in the last week, have them moving up for Freeling or staying put for Miller or Iheanachor. Most mocks have Sadiq off the board for them at 23, so his numbers have dwindled in recent weeks.
24 - Cleveland (from JAX) - WR KC Concepcion (Texas A&M)
Top 5 Most Common Selections:
14 - WR KC Concepcion (Texas A&M)
10 - WR Denzel Boston (Washington)
8 - T Caleb Lomu (Utah)
7 - WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)
5 - WR Omar Cooper JR (Indiana)
Results Since April 1st:
10 - WR KC Concepcion (Texas A&M)
4 - WR Denzel Boston (Washington)
3 - WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State), S Emmanuel McNeill-Warren (Toledo)
2 - WR Omar Cooper JR (Indiana), OL Kadyn Proctor (Alabama), T Max Iheanachor (Arizona State)
1 - T Monroe Freeling (Georgia), T Blake Miller (Clemson), WR Makai Lemon (USC), T Caleb Lomu (Utah), CB Colton Hood (Tennessee), CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee)
Results Since April 16th:
5 - WR KC Concepcion (Texas A&M)
3 - WR Denzel Boston (Washington)
2 - WR Omar Cooper JR (Indiana), S Emmanuel McNeill-Warren (Toledo), T Max Iheanachor (Arizona State)
1 - T Monroe Freeling (Georgia), T Blake Miller (Clemson), WR Makai Lemon (USC), OL Kadyn Proctor (Alabama), T Caleb Lomu (Utah), WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State), CB Colton Hood (Tennessee), CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee)
With most mocks having the Browns go tackle early, most of them have them going receiver late. It’s widespread that they apparently love Concepcion, so it makes sense that he’s the most common pick here with Boston as the backup plan. I’ve also heard through the grapevine that they really like McNeill-Warren, but it’s looking like he may not be in this range of the draft.
25 - Chicago - DL Peter Woods (Clemson)
Top 4 Most Common Selections:
10 - S Emmanuel McNeill-Warren (Toledo)
8 - DL Peter Woods (Clemson), DL Kayden McDonald (Ohio State), S Dillon Thieneman (Oregon)
Results Since April 1st:
5 - S Dillon Thieneman (Oregon), EDGE TJ Parker (Clemson)
4 - DL Peter Woods (Clemson), EDGE Keldric Faulk (Auburn), S Emmanuel McNeill-Warren (Toledo)
3 - EDGE Akheem Mesidor (Miami), EDGE Zion Young (Missouri)
2 - OL Kadyn Proctor (Alabama)
1 - DL Kayden McDonald (Ohio State), T Caleb Lomu (Utah), T Monroe Freeling (Georgia), EDGE R Mason Thomas (Oklahoma)
Results Since April 16th:
4 - DL Peter Woods (Clemson), EDGE TJ Parker (Clemson)
3 - EDGE Keldric Faulk (Auburn)
2 - S Dillon Thieneman (Oregon), S Emmanuel McNeill-Warren (Toledo), EDGE Akheem Mesidor (Miami), EDGE Zion Young (Missouri)
1 - OL Kadyn Proctor (Alabama), T Caleb Lomu (Utah), DL Kayden McDonald (Ohio State), EDGE R Mason Thomas (Oklahoma)
Safety was the most popular pick for this team, but with Thieneman almost certainly off the board that has gone out the window. If they trade down, I think that’s when McNeill-Warren would be in play. There’s been a lot of steam for a couple of defensive linemen and edge rushers who - personally - I’m a huge fan of. Peter Woods would be excellent value and makes a ton of sense. Same with Faulk (who I expect to be gone, as he is in this exercise.
***Analysts Sampled In This Mock Draft Exercise:
Albert Breer - MMQB
Bucky Brooks - NFL Media
Dane Brugler - The Athletic
Kyle Crabbs - AtoZSports
Charles Davis - NFL Media
Fran Duffy - ALLCITY
Eric Edholm - NFL Media
Sam Farmer - LA Times
Bruce Feldman - The Athletic
Mike Florio - ProFootballTalk
Jonathan Jones - CBS Sports
Danny Kelly - The Ringer
Mel Kiper - ESPN
Todd McShay - The Ringer
Josh Norris - Underdog
Tony Pauline - Essentially Sports
Jordan Reid - ESPN
Mike Renner - CBS Sports
Chad Reuter - NFL Media
Peter Schrager - ESPN
Chris Simms - NBC Sports
Nate Tice - Yahoo! Sports
Field Yates - ESPN
Lance Zierlein - NFL Media
NFL Nation Mock Draft - ESPN
Team Beat Writer Mock Drafts - The Athletic
PARTING THOUGHT
So there you have it! How the sharp mock drafters view the Top 25 in this class. Can’t wait for tonight and I’m excited to break it all down in the coming weeks!
Best,
Fran Duffy
