How Free Agency Changed The NFL Draft

Hello, hello!

What a crazy and fun week it’s been. With Free Agency under way, tectonic plates are shifting around the NFL, and that movement will send aftershocks that will be felt on draft weekend. I’ll hit on that at the very top here before diving into some team- and position-specific nuggets afterwards! In case you missed it, my latest Big Board dropped this week, and the plan is for me to drop a Mock Draft next week!

Free Agency Fallout

With hundreds of millions of dollars being allocated around the NFL in the last few days, there are obviously ramifications that will impact next month’s NFL Draft. Here are the five items that are front of mind for me:

1 - Where Does Jeremiyah Love Land?

The New Orleans Saints (No. 8 overall) and Kansas City Chiefs (No. 9 overall) spent big at running back. The Arizona Cardinals (No. 3) invested in the position as well. Surveying Mock Drafts, Arizona was the ceiling for Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love, with New Orleans and Kansas City often being the floor; most of the ‘sharp’ experts in recent weeks have been pegging him to one of those two teams. So that begs the question, where does the former Notre Dame star go? 

Did the Saints and Chiefs spend at the position because they knew they were not going to get him? Or did they spend because maybe they aren’t as high on him as everyone thinks? I tend to think it’s the former, which leads to the next question: if Love isn’t making it to 8 overall, who is taking him in the Top 7?

We know it won’t be the Raiders. The Jets tagged Breece Hall and have no reason to play coy here, if they wanted Love they would have traded the rights to Hall by now. The Cardinals re-did James Conner’s contract and brought in Tyler Allgeier on solid money, plus still have a young (albeit disappointing) back in Trey Benson in the stable. 

Could it be the Tennessee Titans at No. 4? Perhaps GM Mike Borgonzi sees the type of lightning rod for his young quarterback that he had in his Kansas City Chiefs days with Jamaal Charles. 

The Giants pick at No. 5, and there has been reporting since the Combine that they wanted to invest in the position. They reportedly got outbid for Kenneth Walker this week. Considering everything this franchise went through with Saquon Barkley, it feels weird that they’d turn around and spend another top five pick on the position so quickly, but if John Harbaugh is swinging the heaviest hammer in the room…

I do not think that the Cleveland Browns are serious contenders at No. 6 overall, which means that the last team would be Washington at No. 7. One of the things we’ve heard constantly from the leadership in that organization this offseason is that they want to get younger and faster; Love certainly does check those boxes for them. They have exactly one running back on the roster as of this writing, and that’s 2025 7th-Round Pick Bill Croskey-Merritt. So the runway is certainly there for them to make this pick. That said, I don’t know if I love it for them, because they still have such big needs at premium positions (more on that in a second). 

So that gives us three landing spots for Love: Tennessee (No. 4), New York (No. 5) and Washington (No. 6). Who is the most likely?? It may sound crazy … but I think it’s the Giants!

2 - Washington Fixed Their Pass Rush

This offseason, GM Adam Peters singled out the pass rush by saying that was an area of his team that he absolutely would be attacking in free agency and the draft. He followed through with that by signing Odafe Oweh, K’Lavon Chaisson and Charles Omenihu. If you combine that trio with Dorance Armstrong and Daron Payne, I think they can feel pretty good about what they’ve done so far to address that need. Miami EDGE Rueben Bain JR had been one of the most popular picks for them in mock drafts, and if not him than Texas Tech EDGE David Bailey would often get linked there as well. I think we can cross them off the list at this point. 

The wide receiver depth chart is currently barren outside of Terry McLaurin, so that has to be the leader in the clubhouse for me right now in terms of needs. They don’t want to leave Jayden Daniels high and dry when it comes to weaponry. Could they take a corner? Maybe. They signed Amik Robertson to starter-level money, but if they LOVE one of the corners on the board and want to start the run at that spot, it’s not completely out of the question. I would not rule out Ohio State S Caleb Downs here; I don’t think the veteran, Will Harris, keeps you from taking Downs. LB Frankie Luvu is entering a contract year, so Ohio State LB Sonny Styles could be on the table. These are all possible, but I think this is a heavy lean towards wideout if Love is gone at this point.

3 - Whatever The Over/Under Is On Round One Receivers Is … Pound The Over

When I look at free agency and I see the money that players like Alec Pierce, Romeo Doubs, Wan’Dale Robinson, Jahan Dotson and others get, all I can think of is just how hard it is to find competent receivers on the pro market. Obviously these guys are varying degrees of talent levels, but when I look at those four contracts, and compare them to recent deals handed out to great players at other positions? 

Pierce is making more (on average, per year) than Bucs LT Tristan Wirfs, one of the best tackles in football. Doubs and Robinson got paid nearly the same as Chiefs C Creed Humphrey, who had the top of the center market until Tyler Linderbaum’s contract was given out this week. Dotson (who had 18 catches last year) got more than Bills RB James Cook did last summer before he led the NFL in rushing. 

If you want solid receivers without having to pay through the nose, you have to draft them. If you wait until free agency, the talent is all marked up, and if you wade into trade waters you’ll pay market value but with draft pick compensation on top of it. 

For that reason, I expect at least six wideouts to hear their names called on the first night of draft weekend, and it wouldn’t shock me if another one snuck in there as well. That’s a much higher number than what was projected just a couple of months ago for this group. The fun could start as early as No. 4 overall with Tennessee and, honestly, looking at the first round I would say there are far fewer teams who will definitely NOT take a receiver than ones who definitely will be in the running for one. 

4 - The Rams Are Pushing Their Chips In (Again)

After the trade for CB Trent McDuffie, it certainly feels like the Rams are looking at this offseason as a way to gear up for another run at a Super Bowl for this season. That removes them from the quarterback conversation in Round One, but I think this pick at No. 13 will almost certainly be spent on offense. Personally, I think USC WR Makai Lemon is a picture perfect fit with the guys they already have. I could absolutely see that pairing. Could they go with Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq? They (somewhat surprisingly) re-signed veteran Tyler Higbee after drafting Sadiq’s former teammate, TE Terrance Ferguson, in the second round a year ago, but could the top tight end be too good to pass up on? The other sneaky position that has not really been brought up would be right tackle. With the retirement of Rob Havenstein, could the Rams see this as an opportunity to take Miami T Francis Mauigoa or Utah T Spencer Fano were one of the two to fall to them? I would not rule that out. 

5 - The Ty Simpson Spot

With Geno Smith going to the Jets, Malik Willis going to the Dolphins, Tua Tagovailoa going to the Falcons, and Kyler Murray officially out the door, the Cardinals are looking at a quarterback room with two veterans in Jacoby Brissett and newly-signed Gardner Minshew. There was already plenty of buzz about them potentially being the team to move up into the back of round one to get Alabama QB Simpson, and my guess is that those whispers will only grow louder after this week. 

Unfortunate news broke this week (courtesy our friend, Dane Brugler) regarding one of the top defensive line prospects in the class, Florida DT Caleb Banks.

My spidey sense went off immediately when it happened. Banks jumped out of the gym to start his workout  at the Combine (114’’ broad and 32’’ vertical are phenomenal numbers for a guy that’s near 330 pounds) and then followed it up with a very respectable 5.04 in the 40-yard dash. On the very first rep of the defensive line workout, a drill where he had to shuffle laterally from side to side, he tripped and fell, and that was the end of his night. 

I was in the stadium for the workout, so was not following along on television, but apparently he told the broadcast that a ‘cleat issue’ led to him ending his night. My antennae went up immediately, because if it was as simple as that, my guess is that he would have gotten it corrected and gotten back out there for the next rep. I was hoping I was wrong. 

This now makes three known foot surgeries for Banks in the last 15 months, as he also had a procedure done in the fall after a broken foot in his debut vs LSU, which didn’t help until a couple of games into the season as he rehabbed from foot surgery at the end of the 2024 campaign. His report will be highly scrutinized at the medical re-check in early April back in Indianapolis. There are not many true ‘blue chip’ talents in this class, and Banks is one of them, but that’s a tough albatross around his neck. 

Teams will definitely look to try and confirm the timing of the injury as well. Not to doubt Dane’s reporting, obviously, but there is a big difference in perception with ‘Banks tested with the pre-existing broken foot and tried to gut it out’ vs ‘Banks was having a great Combine until he broke his foot mid-workout’. Regardless, it’s really unfortunate news for the talented lineman. I have to think his chances at Round One are slim to none at this point.

This week you guys voted for ‘Safety Production Scores’’. This one features some home cooking. For background, I have a ‘production’ score on every spot on defense, with each formula being slightly different depending on the position. 

For safeties, here are the numbers that I pull: 

Those numbers are weight-adjusted (listed there in order of importance in the formula) and then looked at on a ‘per-snap’ basis (so I need to have the snap counts in order to get the score). That spits out a number, and I get a sense of how impactful that player is when he’s out on the field.

200 safeties have been drafted in the last decade, and I’ve been able to produce a score on 171 of those players, so it’s a pretty good sample to work with. Here’s how this class stacks up.

90th Percentile Or Above: 

80th Percentile Or Above:

50th Percentile Or Above:

50th Percentile Or Below:

20th Percentile Or Below:

10th Percentile Or Below:

It’s important to remember with all of these metrics, that none of them are purely predictive. I look at them more often as being descriptive. Production at safety can also be determined by usage. Guys who are playing often in the box or the slot, where they are closer to the action, are much more likely to rack up numbers, so I’m always wary of that. Obviously sample size matters as well. 

One thing I do enjoy is looking at the players that do produce well and then combining that with things like ‘RAS’ or, simply, experience levels. So who is athletic AND productive? Who is experienced AND productive? Things like that can be informative, and when I find notable nuggets like that I always try and squeeze those into the Draft Guide.

It was only a matter of time, but you all have spoken. The Eagles are up next here under the microscope. 

In my years of keeping track of this stuff, one item that is important to note is that GMs who have long tenures that span over multiple coaches typically change and evolve over time. When you have a large sample of picks, you’re going to have some that go outside of your ideals as a decision maker, which makes it hard for you to really stand out in one specific theme. With that in mind, for the longest-standing General Managers, I typically try to really focus in on the last few years (especially with the current head coach) for the themes that stand out most. That is the case here with Howie Roseman and, in this case, Nick Sirianni. 

1 - The ‘Dawg Mentality’

It’s a bit of a meme at this point, but we hear Sirianni talk about his team’s ‘Dawg Mentality’ constantly whenever he holds a press conference. Does that mean it is lip service? Nope. If you look at every high-value pick the Eagles have made since he was hired in the 2021 cycle (as well as every high-priced free agent or trade acquisition), you would argue that every single one of those guys checked that box. Call it toughness, call it grit, call it work ethic, violence or dawg mentality - all of the guys they’ve taken in that stretch in Rounds 1-3 (15 players total) match that ethos. If you say you want a tough team, then you have to draft tough players. The Eagles walk the walk with that and, to be honest, that was not always the case. 

2 - Stay Alert For The Senior Bowl On Days 1 and 2

Howie Roseman has been in charge since the 2011 NFL Draft, and he has selected 40 players in the first three rounds during that time. Over that stretch, 53 percent of those 40 guys played in the Senior Bowl. That’s one of the higher numbers in football when compared to other decision makers in that range of the draft. From Lane Johnson, Quinyon Mitchell and Danny Watkins in the first round to Jalen Hurts, Nick Foles and Curtis Marsh on Day two, they’ve taken a lot of guys that weren’t just invited, but played in Mobile and played well. 

3 - Upside On Day 3

This is broad strokes analysis, but there are really one of two ways to look at the third day of the draft, because all of the prospects are typically flawed in some way (otherwise they would have been selected earlier). You can either find specific role players; prospects that might be pigeonholed into spots like ‘third linebacker’ or ‘blocking wide receiver’ or ‘special teams ace’. Or you can swing for upside and draft players that have the ability to start but fall due to one reason or another. Roseman is a big believer in the latter. He has said numerous times over the years publicly that they don’t look to draft future backups. They’re looking for unique traits, guys that have ‘tools in their body’ to develop into a high-ceiling performer. Jason Kelce. Jordan Mailata. Josh Sweat. Moro Ojomo. These are all examples on the far side of the spectrum. You’re not going to have a high hit rate that way, but - especially if you have a lot of these picks - you’re going to have a bunch of success stories that outweigh the misses. The Eagles always hope to land the gritty, tough, instinctive but physically limited players in undrafted free agency (think Reed Blankenship and TJ Edwards and Corey Clement), but on Day 3, it’s about upside.

So if you’re filling out your mock draft for the Eagles, and you’re at No. 23 overall - your pick better be known for his toughness, intensity, grit or something in that vein. Think Alabama T Kadyn Proctor or USC WR Makai Lemon or Clemson CB Avieon Terrell. He has to have that quality. 

On Day Two, you want to match that but, also, with an eye towards the Senior Bowl. Illinois EDGE Gabe Jacas comes to mind. Georgia Tech G Keylan Rutledge fits the bill. Ohio State TE Will Kacmarek as well. 

Then on Day Three, you have to swing for the fences. Alabama EDGE LT Overton. Miami OT Markel Bell. Penn State QB Drew Allar. These are all names that come to mind for me as I go through this exercise. 

If you want me to cover your team in the next version of this segment, reply and let me know!

For the first time in too long, I was reunited with Greg Cosell behind the mics as we broke down the top wide receiver prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft with positives, negatives and how the players project best into the league. I also jumped into some key player comparisons at the position.

We’re getting into the CRAZY part of draft season, where information is flowing fast between 30 visits, Pro Days, zoom meetings, reported interest and more. Some of it is true. Some of it is complete fabrication (either feigned interest from a team, fluff from an agent, or just a media rumor gone wild).

But I have a confession to make.

I love it.

By the time we get to late March, I am in full-on ‘Charlie Day Conspiracy Theory Board’-GIF mode. I’m trying to follow bread crumbs and connect dots left and right. My wife watches Real Housewives, that’s her vice. This is mine.

All of the ‘stuff I’m hearing’ is what gets roped into my Mock Drafts in the lead-up to the draft, and like I said earlier, keep an eye out for my next mock this time next week!

Best,

Fran Duffy

PS — Speaking of Conspiracy Theory Board, count me in the group that is very suspicious of how the Ravens non-trade with the Raiders went down this week. That’s worth a whole email in of itself.