Is Age Just A Number? + Playoff Preview

Hello, hello, and Happy New Year!

I hope everyone has had a great holiday season surrounded by family and friends. I took the week off from both the newsletter and the podcast last week, but we’re back with mid-week editions here to get you primed for the second round of the College Football Playoffs and the latest buzz surrounding this 2026 Draft Class. Let’s get to it!

IS AGE JUST A NUMBER?

Before we get into the latest news around individual prospects, one topic that has been on my mind lately with this draft class has been age. Over the last few years, for multiple reasons (including the ‘free’ Covid year of 2020 and the ‘Pavia Ruling’ for Junior College eligibility last fall), we have seen prospects enter the draft at an advanced age. There are cases of this in every class, and they will always pop up here and there, but this year it feels like there are quite a few examples to take a close look at. I thought this week, with everyone looking at the calendar and turning the page to a new year, this was the best time to bring it to the forefront. 

Age is a tricky subject and every evaluator weighs it differently. Some are very passionate about it. Others are indifferent and couldn’t care less. Some fall right in between. I’m very much a ‘case by case’ evaluator, but there are a few aspects of this conversation that send off alarm bells in my head. 

The late breakout is always something I’m going to dig a little deeper on. If a guy is turning 24, 25 or 26 years old as a rookie, and didn’t really become a productive college football player until late in his college career when he was 23, 24 or 25, that is concerning. This is especially true at positions where strength matters (closer to the ball and along the line of scrimmage), where an older player can assert his will over a 19 or 20-year old opponent on a near-weekly basis. This was one of the things that worried me about Eagles rookie DT Ty Robinson last spring, as he was a sixth-year senior who never had more than two sacks in a season until his final year. Like I said, however, context is important. Bernhard Raimann (who just signed a $100 million contract as the Colts left tackle) was a 24-year old two-year starter from a Group of 5 school when he came out in 2022, but he was a foreign exchange student from Austria who was very late to the game. That was a bit more forgivable. 

Then I get to the sliding scale of age and development. If you are entering the league as an older player, then I’m hoping you’re ready to go. This can’t be like opening a gift on Christmas morning and further assembly is required and batteries aren’t included. I want to unpack and hit the ground running. In 2023 the Panthers took edge rusher DJ Johnson out of Oregon. He ran 4.49 that spring at 260 pounds; he was a really explosive athlete. But he was a really underdeveloped pass rusher who did not display good block recognition, didn’t play to his size and just needed more refinement - which makes sense seeing as how he was just a one-year starter with really only one year of production as a sixth-year senior. I’m going back a decade with this one, but I remember in the 2015 NFL Draft there was a highly-athletic tight end named Jean Sifrin coming out of UMass. He had great highlights as a receiver, but needed a ton of work as a route runner, technician and as a blocker. He was already 27 years old. So if he’s a year away from even competing to be a part-time player, when he’ll be 28 years old, what exactly are we talking about? Is the juice worth the squeeze? That’s an extreme example, but you get the gist!

A lot of people will point to age and discuss the rookie contract and how many years that they have playing in the NFL. That, honestly, does not weigh as heavily on me. Bo Nix and JJ McCarthy went in similar stages of the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. JJ McCarthy was 21 years old, and Nix was 24. Fast forward to two seasons later, do you think the Broncos care that Nix is three years older? The value of that position is such that - if you hit on a guy - that’s the most important thing. If he has a great 8-year career, you’ll take that every time. 

Which brings me to my last, and final, point on this topic: context matters. I mentioned the case of Raimann above, but sticking with that 2024 NFL Draft. Nix chose to be a fifth-year senior. Jayden Daniels, also in that class, chose to be a fifth-year senior. Michael Penix JR did not. He was 24 years old when he was drafted because he had four season-ending injuries in college. I’m not here to discuss the risk involved with that selection, but it does paint the picture of understanding WHY a player is older upon entering the league. In this class, a great example of that is Missouri S Jalen Catalon. He turns 25 years old right after the Combine. I've been watching this guy on tape since the 2020 season when he was a 2nd-Team All-SEC pick for Arkansas as a redshirt freshman. He was a dynamo and, in a lot of ways, he still is. I think he’s a really good player, but - as I said in the Diehard Draft Guide, he has an injury history that is scarier than a ‘we need to talk’ text. Here’s how his bio reads in the guide right now:

That is worrisome, obviously. Will it require the same level of investment as Penix did with Atlanta? Of course not, but it’s still a part of the calculus that that decision. I’d say the same for standout Miami EDGE Akheem Mesidor. He turns 25 years old in April. He reportedly had offseason surgery on his foot when he first transferred there from West Virginia after 2022, then had another season-ending foot surgery in 2023 before missing some time this fall with another foot injury. His film is awesome, but that’s concerning. 

As I continue to churn through profiles and tape study of prospects headed to the two major All-Star games, I’m seeing a number of older prospects. South Carolina RB Rahsul Faison (who will be 26 years old when he reports to training camp next summer), Baylor TE Michael Trigg (24 years old), Western Michigan EDGE Nadame Tucker (26), and Indiana S Louis Moore (25) all fit this bill, but the list extends past them. It’s important to understand the context behind all of them, and it will be up to each evaluator to determine how much the ‘why’ matters in the final projection. 

I’m interested to hear from you on this topic. Do you have horror stories from your favorite team selecting an older player and it not working out? Is there something I’m missing from the conversation? Do you think it shouldn’t matter at all? Let me know!

Since my last email, several of the top underclassmen in the country have announced their intentions to enter this class. Here are three of the biggest names of the week:

We’re now just a couple of weeks away from these decisions becoming ‘official’, but remember that the players on teams that make it far into the College Football Playoff are given some extra time before making their final decisions. All of these guys can change their minds, one way or the other, before then!

As I’m typing this email out, I have 111 players tagged for the Senior Bowl in the Draft Guide and another 84 for the Shrine Bowl (with some crossover as a handful of players have been announced for both games). If you want to see the full list, check out the Guide and you’ll see every non-specialist that has officially accepted an invite so far! Here are a few of the notable names that I’ve done more film work on over the last week.

Sometimes you watch a player and you walk away feeling pretty certain, regardless of whether or not he becomes a starter or a backup or whatever, that a guy is just going to stick in the NFL. I feel that way about Penn State EDGE Dani Dennis-Sutton. At 6-foot-5, 265 pounds, he has NFL size, which serves him well in the run game. He is wired into the snap count and can get the jump on tackles in the pass game. He put an exclamation point on his career with a two-sack performance in the Pinstripe Bowl against Clemson this weekend. He plays really hard. I think that intensity will show up daily during Senior Bowl practices. In talking with people in the building at Penn State, this is a guy who puts everything he has into being great, and it’s not just for show. He takes his approach seriously and puts his heart and soul into it. Here are a few nuggets I’ve collected on coaches, players (and private sources) speaking about Dennis-Sutton - and keep in mind that you can get quotes like this for every single player I’ve written up in the Diehard Draft Guide!

A small-school receiver headed to Mobile that is generating some buzz is Georgia State WR Ted Hurst. A former 0-star recruit who began his career at Valdosta State, Hurst is listed 6-foot-3, 195 pounds, and for a bigger-bodied guy he has some giddy-up. I like him best outside the numbers, where his size and movement allow him to win matchups in multiple ways. He excels at the catch point; he goes up and over guys really well and can make some really difficult grabs (although he’ll have some frustrating drops mixed in). I think he has starting upside and will continue to build more buzz throughout the process. A few of the names I wrote down after my initial evaluation, to give you a ballpark of how I view him: Michael Gallup, Josh Reynolds, Cedrick Wilson and Josh Doctson.

We’ll go north of the border for my favorite Shrine Bowl player I’ve studied this week with Boston College OL Logan Taylor. A native Canadian (born in Nova Scotia), Taylor went to Virginia for his first two years and then played at BC for the last three. I’ll be honest, there aren’t eye-popping physical traits evident on film when you study him, but he’s a well-rounded player. He’s smart, skilled and strong enough to hold his ground. My favorite part of his profile? He has started games at both tackle spots and both guard spots, with 500-plus snaps played at LT, LG and RG. That type of swing versatility is so valuable, and it makes him a candidate to be active on gamedays as early as his rookie season (as long as his ability and intangibles are up to par, which they seem to be at this point of the evaluation). Taylor is currently one of my highest-graded players heading to the Shrine Bowl.

On Monday night I studied Kentucky WR Kendrick Law for the first time, and he’s another interesting evaluation. Listed at 6-foot tall and north of 200 pounds, he’s built more like a running back than a receiver. He’s a dense athlete with good stop-start quickness and strength to play through contact, which makes him tough to get to the ground once he gets the ball in his hands. He is definitely a certain kind of player when you look at his usage (more on that in a second), but one thing I love about him is that he’s competitive as a blocker and he’s been a starter on all four special teams units throughout his career, even as a freshman playing for Nick Saban at Alabama. The question is - what does he do for you on offense? At both Alabama and Kentucky, he has been a screen merchant, with a large number of his targets coming behind, at or close to the line of scrimmage. It doesn’t mean he can’t be more than that in the NFL, but he’ll have to prove it when he gets down to the Shrine Bowl in a few weeks.

One player I hadn’t gotten to at all before this season but started to hear buzz on as the fall wore on was California CB Hezekiah Masses. Once it was announced that he was heading to the Senior Bowl, I jumped at the opportunity to get to the film. Here’s the Scouting Report, directly from the Draft Guide …

Masses was a 2-star recruit out of high school and spent his first three seasons at FIU, the only FBS program to reportedly offer him a scholarship. In three seasons he had two interceptions and 12 PBUs. This year? Five interceptions and 13 PBUs. He went out on a high note, and there are some teams (‘cough’ Jaguars, ‘cough’ Rams) who have been attracted to players who transfer up and see their production spike. He’s definitely a bit grabby, but at 6-foot-1, 185 pounds I thought he moved well. The tools are there! If he can trust his technique and be more disciplined, he looks like a starting corner on the outside in the NFL.

At the end of action on Sunday Night Football, the first 18 picks of the NFL Draft will be set. With so many teams tightly-packed together, there’s going to be a lot of movement. But here’s the final snapshot of how the Top 10 looks right now before it becomes official, and what is on the line with the team’s final game this weekend.

1 - LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (2-14)

The Raiders are in the pole position for the top pick in April. If they lose or tie against Kansas City, they lock it up. If they win and the Giants lose, that opens the door for New York (based off strength of schedule).

2 - NEW YORK GIANTS (3-13)

The Giants currently hold this spot, but with a few other three-win teams out there it is not locked in yet. They play the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, and a loss should keep them here (they would, at worst, drop to three).

3 - NEW YORK JETS (3-13)

With Atlanta’s upset of the Rams on Monday Night Football, there is no way that their strength of schedule will be worse than Vegas’, so the best that the Jets fans can hope for is to have the No. 2 pick after a loss in Buffalo on Sunday and with a Giants win against the Cowboys.

4 - TENNESSEE TITANS (3-13)

They go on the road to take on Jacksonville, who is still in-play for the No. 1 seed. You can probably write this loss in pen for the Titans, but based off strength of schedule they won’t be moving too far up to the draft order, even with that outcome.

5 - ARIZONA CARDINALS (3-13)

Playing in the NFC West has really hurt Arizona’s tie breaker against teams with the same record. They go to the Rams on Sunday to play out the string. 

6 - WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (4-12)

It’s crazy that Washington has been as bad as they have this year and are unlikely to have a Top 5 pick to show for it. They travel to Philadelphia on Sunday afternoon. Looking at the teams above them and who they have on the slate this week, it’s tough to imagine that changing this week.

7 - CLEVELAND BROWNS (4-12)

Cleveland goes on the road to take on rival Cincinnati to finish out the year. They just beat another AFC North foe in Pittsburgh this week, and for those who think it makes sense to root for a loss here to help draft standing: even if the Browns win, this is the worst their draft slot can get. They’re two games away from the Saints with the No. 8 pick, and if all of the teams above them lose, they’ll be stuck in this spot anyway. 

8 - NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (6-10)

The Saints have won four straight games now behind rookie QB Tyler Shough. The Falcons showed signs of life with their win on Monday night, but can they sustain to keep their most hated rivals from making it five straight to end the year? This is the absolute highest the Saints will be drafting (barring a Mickey Loomis trade-up, of course).

9 - CINCINNATI BENGALS (6-10)

Bengals fans with the big picture in mind will trade in their ‘WHO DEY’ for some ‘WHO DAT’, as they root for a Saints win and a Bengals loss to jump up a spot in the draft order. That  may  not seem like a lot right now, but four months from now? That’s a ton, especially given the fact that they have traded up on the first two days of the draft exactly ONCE since 1995 when they took Ki-Jana Carter out of Penn State. Once! If Bengals fans want the best player possible to support Joe Burrow, you have to count on the favorable draft slot to get him.

10 - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (6-10)

It feels weird just to type that, and it is unlikely that it remains that way. The Raiders host the Chiefs this weekend, and they don’t look like they’re in position to beat Kansas State, much less Kansas City. So, who are the teams that would be in play for this spot?

The Dolphins, Rams (who have the Falcons’ pick) and Bucs all have 7-9 records (the Cowboys are at 7-8-1. Miami goes to New England, who is playing for the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye, with the Dolphins starting rookie seventh-rounder Quinn Ewers in the cold. I think they’re the favorites to crack into this Top 10. As I mentioned earlier, the Falcons host the Saints (so Rams fans will be rooting for New Orleans as much as Cincinnati fans are), and the Bucs are - laughably - also in play to win the NFC South. If Tampa beats Carolina at home and if the Falcons lose or tie, they draft outside the first 18 picks. If they lose against the Panthers, they’re in play for the 10th or (more likely) 11th pick and will have lost seven of their final eight games.

I was happy to welcome ESPN’s Jordan Reid onto the show this week to break down the names you need to know in this week’s slate of games in the College Football Playoff. It all starts Wednesday night with the Cotton Bowl between Miami and Ohio State, but we cover all four playoff games with Jordan after we talk about his fall as a road warrior, attending game after game after game this College Football season and his biggest takeaways from being on the road throughout the year. I always enjoy my chats with Jordan, so be sure to tune in for that to get you ready for this week’s games!

I’ve gotten questions from some people as to why I haven’t spent more time previewing the non-playoff bowl games. The reason for that is simple: trying to predict who is going to play and who isn’t is a futile exercise. Over the last couple of years I have tried to collect media reports from beat writers close to the team, talk to those writers privately, and even talk to sources inside these buildings, and none of the information is ever ironclad. I may talk to a coach and he will say (a) he has no idea if the player will go or not or (b) say with certainty that he is/isn’t, and then the opposite happens! It’s just the nature of the dynamic right now. It doesn’t make the games any less fun to watch live or to study later, but in terms of trying to preview? It’s near impossible. With that in mind, I’ll keep my focus on the playoffs — because we know those players are (almost all) completely invested in playing in these games. 

I’m going to take the same approach for this slate of playoff games that I did going into the first round, where I’ll pick an ‘X Factor’ player to watch in each matchup while also giving you a prediction on the game as a whole.

Let’s start with the Cotton Bowl.

The difference maker for Miami in their upset win over Texas A&M was junior RB Mark Fletcher, and while I think he will be important in this bout, I think it’s more important for senior QB Carson Beck to show up in a big way for the Hurricanes.

The Ohio State defense is potentially underrated just based on the sheer fact that they haven’t been tested by big-time offenses to this point in the year. They embarrassed Texas back in Week 1 and mostly kept the lid on the Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza in the Big 10 Title Game, but if they go on a crazy run and lead OSU to back-to-back titles, it could go down as one of the best defenses in modern college football history.

Beck was a non-factor outdoors in the elements against the Aggies, but from the comfy indoor confines inside Jerry World on Wednesday evening, the stage is set for him to be more in control. He’s played in big games before. Can he keep the offense on schedule and not give the Buckeyes extra possessions on offense? I have faith in the Miami defense to hold up their end of the bargain in this game.

I feel like I think more highly of Beck’s NFL projection than most, but this is a big stage. He could truly earn himself some money if he can orchestrate some offense against that Buckeye defense. I think this is a low-scoring game, and so it will truly come down to some high-leverage moments. Who makes the play when it matters most? I put more faith in the Buckeyes to come away with this, but I think it could be closer than people think. 

Next up is the Orange Bowl on Thursday afternoon between Texas Tech and Oregon. I do like the Ducks here, mainly because I don’t have much faith in the Tech offense to score enough points against an opportunistic Oregon defense. That said, we know what the engine of this Red Raiders team is - it’s that defensive front led by their two senior edge rushers in David Bailey and Romello Height. That’s why, for me, the X Factor is the pair of Oregon offensive tackles in Isaiah World and Alex Harkey. I think the advantage is tilted here towards Bailey and Height, especially on pure passing downs where they can just pin their ears back and go. Can the Ducks stay on schedule with the run game enough to prevent those guys from doing so? For Oregon to lose this game, I think it starts with the rush getting to QB Dante Moore (who is playing in the biggest game of his career so far) and forcing him into mistakes. I like Moore a lot. I don’t love the Ducks tackles, but I think they can do enough for UO to get by and win this game. 

After that is the Granddaddy of them all with the Rose Bowl between Indiana and Alabama, and I’m going to go with the low-hanging fruit here. My X Factor is Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza. This is his first game since winning the prestigious Heisman Trophy, the Hoosiers are the No. 1 team in the country and, honestly, all of the pressure is on them in this one. Alabama was left for dead twice this year. They fought to come back and win on the road in Oklahoma. Not many people would have picked them to make it this far back in October. Indiana was the darling of the 2024 season, getting into the playoff before losing to Notre Dame in the first round. How do they avoid the early exit again? I thought they answered the bell well in the Big 10 Championship against Ohio State, but it was far from perfect. Alabama’s defense is tougher than people give it credit for and, maybe most importantly, the forecast is calling for showers. I’m hoping it’s not a complete washout, because that could really affect this game. Keep in mind that Mendoza needed late-game heroics to beat some of the toughest defenses on his schedule this year, overcoming late adversity against Oregon, Iowa, Penn State and Ohio State. That’s a tough way to live! Can he do it again against the Tide? I am leaning Indiana in this game … but I’d be lying if I said I feel great about that one. 

The Sugar Bowl between Ole Miss and Georgia is the outcome I do feel strongest about, because I like the Dawgs here, and I think I like them to cover the spread comfortably. Georgia and Kirby Smart have had weeks to prepare for this matchup (I’m sure they put most of their effort into preparing for Ole Miss while the Rebels were putting in prep work for Tulane). The Georgia defense has been lights out of late and with all of the changing dynamics on the Ole Miss sideline, I just think the time has run out for them, unfortunately. My pivot player in this matchup is Georgia LB CJ Allen, because for Ole Miss to have a prayer here, they need their vaunted run game to hit full throttle. Lacy (who is banged up going into this game after a 1,300 yard season) ran for a season-low 31 years in the first matchup between these two teams. Ole Miss needs more from him if they’re going to win this one. Allen is one of my favorite linebackers in this draft class (if he declares), and his ability to play downhill is one of my favorite aspects of his game. Give me the Dogs, and a big day for one of their flag carriers. 

Happy New Year everyone! This is going to be an AWESOME slate of games, I’m excited to break it all down for you in the coming weeks!

Fran Duffy

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