My first mock draft of 2026!

Hello, hello!

I wanted to reach out again before the semi-finals of the College Football Playoff and, as always, we’ve got plenty to hit on. This is one of the craziest times of year! Not only do we have the College Football Playoff coming to a close, but the NFL playoffs are kicking off this weekend as well. With that, I’ve got a bit of a treat for you.

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Last week I laid out potential outcomes for Week 18 in the NFL and how that could impact the Top 10 of the NFL Draft. One week later, and we have our first 18 selections set in stone! With that, I dropped my first official Mock Draft of the calendar year, with version 1.0 hitting the site this week. Some people in the business love doing mocks. Some hate it, but understand it as a necessary evil. I have to say … I thoroughly enjoy it. It’s time-consuming because I put a lot of thought and effort into it, but I find it to be really fun exercise. 

Some analysts put mock drafts together under the scope of ‘this is what I would do if I were in this team’s shoes.’ I never understood that method, personally. To me, mocking the first round is meant as a predictive task. If you want my opinion on the players, you can check out the Big Boards I put out and the Draft Guide. That’s what those are for. To me, it’s far more instructive to try and get inside the mind of 32 decision makers and really let the draft play out, making the decisions that you think THEY would make. When teams do a mock draft exercise in draft meetings leading up to the draft, they aren’t just picking players off of their board. They bring in the pro scouting staff that knows the other 31 teams inside and out and, based on information acquired each spring, make their best educated guesses on who the other teams will select.

I try to approach it the same way. 

Throughout the year I keep notes on all 32 teams and their decision makers, building out a bit of a portfolio on the types of profiles they trend towards in the draft. Why? Because I’m a nerd for stuff like this, first off. The art of team building and the decisions that go into making draft picks is one of the things I’m so passionate about in this process. Some teams trend heavily towards youth, while others lean heavily into seniors in their fifth or sixth seasons. Some are willing to take on more risk with profiles that include checkered health or background issues. Will I ever bat 1.000 on predicting which players teams will take? Of course not, but I can glean some really interesting insights. 

The example I always use when explaining this sickness I have is pointing to Andrew Berry with the Cleveland Browns. Since he’s been in that position, he has selected 19 players in Rounds 1-3. All but one of those players (Alex Wright) came from a Power 5 program (and even he began his career as a big-time recruit for the Florida Gators before transferring to UAB later). Just 3-of-19 were older than 22 years old going into the regular season of their rookie year. They, generally, have not taken any ‘red flag’ players (whether it be injury or character) in the draft. So right off the bat, I have a small profile of a player for them to target in the first three rounds: young, clean player from a Power 4 school. Then you factor in things like position of need, known links on the staff to each player (all of which I’ve tracked for  years), among dozens of other factors, and you start to narrow down a list of players that make the most sense for a team. Again, it’s not perfect! As one scouting buddy told me a few years ago, ‘it’s only a trend until it’s not,’ but it’s all part of the big logic puzzle that makes it fun to track. All of that work goes into these mock drafts for me. 

This is also why, every time a GM gets fired, a small piece of me dies, because now I have to (likely) start from scratch with a brand new decision maker in the role for the first time. This can be fun, in its own way, but I enjoy it more when we have a three- or four-year sample size to work with.

One big draft domino we were waiting to see fall was the future of Alabama QB Ty Simpson, and the news broke on Wednesday morning that he would be entering the 2026 NFL Draft. As momentum started to build for Simpson throughout the season, I studied him relatively late in the fall. He has starting potential, there’s no doubt. I compared him to Brock Purdy as a passer, I think they’re generally cut from the same cloth. Purdy was far more experienced after his long career at Iowa State, which brings me to the biggest flaw in the Simpson profile, straight from the Draft Guide…

This is an uphill climb for Simpson to battle through. Guys that don’t have that long track record as a starter have just struggled to stick as starters. The names listed above were the first-round picks, but the other seven that went on Days 2 and 3 were Cardale Jones, Gardner Minshew, Jake Luton, Tommy Stevens, Davis Mills, Tanner McKee and Joe Milton. It just isn’t a great hit rate for starters. 

If you were to open it up a bit, and look at the scope up through the bottom 20th percentile (25 starts), you see a bit more guys that ‘hit’, including CJ Stroud, Sam Darnold, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Fields and Carson Wentz, all of whom have enjoyed some form of success in the NFL in varying degrees. 

While Simpson built a lot of steam throughout the season, he hit a bit of a rough patch down the stretch, facing bouts of inaccuracy in certain games with a string of turnovers. Considering how things fizzled at the very end, I assumed that he’d go back to school (whether it was to Alabama or elsewhere). 

I should state that, last year at this time, Carson Beck was set to enter the draft before eventually entering the Transfer Portal. The year before that, Cam Ward did the same thing. There’s nothing concrete keeping Simpson in this class until the deadline comes in a couple of weeks. 

I’m trying to get through as many of these Shrine Bowl and Senior Bowl player acceptances as possible, as both All-Star Games are up over 100 confirmed invitations. I had studied a lot of these players already, but the list keeps growing! 

One guy I studied over the weekend that I got a bit smitten with, enough so that I had to get him into my Mock Draft, was Florida CB Devin Moore.

Here’s the scouting report from the Draft Guide.

As I’ve shared with you in the past, this draft class in 2026 will be widely panned as being a weaker one, particularly at the very top. There’s talent, to be sure, but there just aren’t many true ‘blue chip’ players that everyone views as universal ‘great’ prospects. To me, that means a player like this should be viewed as extremely valuable. In a class that lacks the high-upside play at the top, he is one of those physical talents. He’s 6-foot-3 and over 200 pounds. He moves extremely well. He’s tough on the field. He’s instinctive. He has ballskills. You could squint and see him developing into a true shutdown corner. He’s had multiple season-ending injuries, however, most notably with his shoulders. That will impact his value, almost definitely. 

He’s heading to the Senior Bowl in a couple of weeks. If he goes down there and lights it up? And then if he does what I think he will do at the Combine? He will be viewed as a ‘riser’ throughout the pre-draft process. The film is legitimate. I don’t think there’s enough buzz about this guy yet, but I bet that will change.

Big news from the All-Star Game circuit this week, as LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier has been announced for the Senior Bowl. I love this for Nussmeier, who was sidelined due to injury down the stretch after seemingly fighting through issues for much of the season (which certainly could put a damper on his value). I’m keeping the light on for him as a starting quarterback down the line in the NFL. Two of the player comps I have written in his profile in the Draft Guide: Tony Romo and Baker Mayfield. Round one is probably out of reach for Nuss at this stage, but I think Day Two is in play as long as the pre-draft medical reports are kind to him.

Staying in the SEC, I studied Alabama LB Justin Jefferson for the first time over the weekend. Jefferson is a first-time starter for the Tide after being a backup the last two seasons (he spent his first two years at the JuCo level). I thought he saw things fairly well, considering his lack of starting experience, especially in the pass game. I appreciated his level of physicality. I wondered if he could be a low-end starter in the league down the road. At the end of the day, however, there just weren’t enough impact plays downhill in the run game. When I went through the numbers, they backed that up.

This weekend I also finally got eyes on the pair of Michigan tight ends hitting the circuit. TE Marlin Klein is headed to the Senior Bowl and FB/TE Max Bredeson is headed to the Shrine Bowl. The way I’d juxtapose the two is that I think Klein is the better prospect, but Bredeson is the better and more useful player. Bredeson is the quintessential ‘little brother’ who followed his older brothers around (both were accomplished athletes for the Wolverines), walked on and earned his way before becoming a two-time captain. He’s a glass eater as a blocker. I think he can be a starting fullback in the league, and there are teams looking to add a player like this to the roster. 

Klein grew up in Germany and came to football late, moving to America once he fell in love with the sport. He’s a long strider who can make an impact down the seam. I think there’s enough there to become a serviceable pass catcher and blocker in the NFL, but I’m not sure he’s quite dominant in either phase. Since there’s further development needed, there’s a bit of a bust factor there as well. At his best, I thought he could turn into an Austin Hooper-level of player: an in-line presence who is focused primarily as a pass catcher but isn’t a game-breaking mismatch type of athlete. Both guys looked draftable to me, for sure, though I don’t know if I’m as high on Klein as others seem to be.

I went on a solo venture for the podcast this week, breaking down all of the selections for our ALLCITY teams in my Mock Draft 1.0 (and a handful of other picks that I liked for one reason or another) before diving into these College Football Playoff semi-final games. Who are the six impact performers flying under the radar? I give you six (technically seven) guys to focus on. Get it wherever you get your podcasts!

In the podcast this week I picked six guys to focus on that could be considered ‘under the radar’ impact players in these two playoff games, so for you I wanted to take a bit of a different spin. Is there a specific, prospect-related question I’m interested in seeing in these games? I’ll pick one for each team, starting with Thursday night between Miami and Ole Miss before transitioning to Friday’s bout between Indiana and Oregon.

I picked the Hurricanes to upset Texas A&M, and I’m kicking myself for not trusting my gut against the Buckeyes last week. I picked them to cover but not to win outright, even though there was a little voice in my head to do so. That little voice has grown louder. I think Miami brings the physicality in this one on both sides of the line of scrimmage, setting the tone early and often. Give me The U here as they punch their ticket to the National Championship.

As a college football fan, I find it hard not to root for Indiana. It’s such a cool story, and if they were to win the whole thing it would probably be one of the greatest stories in the history of college sports, full stop. They’re undefeated. They have the Heisman Trophy winner. They have a defense that flies around. They just blew the doors of Alabama in the Rose Bowl after unseating the defending National Champions to win their first Big 10 title. They’re riding a huge wave right now. But I don’t know … there’s something about this Oregon team. I think Dante Moore is made of the right stuff. He’s a phenomenal talent. I talked about the pass catchers, but this is a team that wants to assert its will on the ground. They run the ball better than Alabama and Ohio State do this year. I really like their defense. Maybe the Hoosiers make me feel silly about this on Saturday morning … but give me the Ducks in this one. 

College Football Playoffs tonight and Friday, with NFL Playoffs through Monday night? Enjoy this five-day stretch. This is going to be awesome.

Best,

Fran Duffy

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