Hello, hello!

With the news of Justin Fields’ benching this week in New York, I found myself thinking about the 2021 NFL Draft — which will somehow already turn five years old this spring.

That quarterback class was star-studded, with five hearing their names called in the first round. Of those five, just one is still on his original team four years later.

Then I look at the rest of the group and it’s easy to appreciate just how great that class was! In all, 18 players from that class have made a Pro Bowl at some point on their rookie contract (with SEVERAL others who are certainly worthy of that distinction). A number of them have signed ceiling-setting contracts at their respective positions. This was a great draft class. 

So that got me thinking - Who were some of my biggest hits and misses from that class? I wrote up over 300 players that year, so there were plenty of learning experiences working in both directions.

I ended up with an article of my three big hits and three big misses from the 2021 NFL Draft which will be sent to you if you successfully refer just one subscriber to this newsletter.

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OK, let’s get into this week’s good stuff …

We have two new additions to the Top 50 this week!

First up, Stanford LT Niki Prongos.

Prongos is a fourth-year junior, so he does have another year of eligibility after this season if he wants it (I think he would be best-served in taking it), but if he does declare for this draft class he will be one of the most fascinating prospects in the entire class!

You can read the entire background in the Draft Guide, but Prongos was an outstanding baseball and basketball player early in his high school career. He chose to play football as a senior, tore his ACL after three games, and walked on as an afterthought at UCLA. After rehabbing and developing in the background for two seasons, he started eight games for the Bruins in 2024 at three different positions. He transferred to Stanford this offseason and has started every game at left tackle. He’s an effortless mover and has all of the tools to be an effective starting tackle in the NFL. He just needs reps. 

Not to go on too long of a tangent, but here’s my take on developmental stories like this one. We all can see a player’s talent and the upside. The question becomes, does he have the intangibles to reach that upside? This goes back to that Bill Belichick line of ‘talent setting the floor and character setting the ceiling.’ 

Does the player have the work ethic to put the time in? Is he coachable? Is he mentally strong enough to fight through the failures and bumps on the road along the way? If I feel great about the answers to these questions, I am far more likely to put a high grade on a developmental player. If I don’t like the answers, or am unsure about the answers, then I will be far more measured in my final evaluation by the time I get to the spring. Over my career I have seen examples of both sides of this coin, both up close and from afar. It’s important to note for every prospect, but especially for guys with this type of profile.

The second addition to the Top 50 was South Carolina CB Brandon Cisse who, like Prongos, is in his first year with the team after transferring in from another nearby program. Cisse started in 2024 for NC State. He’s an athletic cover corner who I think would fit great for a man coverage scheme. I’m a bit worried about the size and strength, and I want to see more examples of his ballskills down the field. That said, I think he can play inside or outside in the NFL. 

Going into the week’s slate of games, here’s how the Top 10 currently sits in the NFL Draft.

Now, here’s every team’s remaining ‘Strength of Schedule’ (per Sharp Football)

A few stray thoughts after taking this in:

Both Nate and I have Auburn EDGE/DT Keldric Faulk as the No. 1 player on our boards, so we had to lead the conversation with that. We talked about Texas Tech EDGE David Bailey and how he and I see him differently, along with Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza. I also went through all of the critical factors I prioritize when I evaluate cornerbacks in the NFL Draft at the end of the show in a segment that I’ve always called ‘Under The Hood’, so stick around for that as well after the chat with Nate!

It’s a bit of a lighter slate this week, as many teams schedule a bit of a ‘tune-up’ game at this point in the calendar before getting into Rivalry Weekend and the College Football Postseason. That said, there are still some important matchups of note from an NFL Draft standpoint!

In a classic Big 10 matchup, Northwestern takes on Minnesota in the early slate. This is another opportunity for Wildcats LT Caleb Tiernan, one of my favorites in the senior class, against another NFL Draft prospect. Gophers EDGE Anthony Smith is a big, physical defensive end who holds up well against the run. He doesn’t have a ton of clean wins as a pass rusher, but the tools are absolutely here. He profiles as a guy who should have a long career in the league. Tiernan had a great battle against Oregon EDGE Matayo Uiagalelei earlier this fall - here are all of their head-to-head reps from that game.

The big one from the second window is out west with USC and Oregon. It’s safe to say that the loser of this game is likely eliminated from playoff contention (especially for the Trojans), so there’s a lot on the line here. Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq - one of my Top 15 players in the country - had a productive outing last week and has the ability to be a game-changer every week as both a receiver and as a blocker. Talented USC S Kamari Ramsey is banged up going into this game, and may not be able to go. If he does, he’ll see plenty of Sadiq. But another guy to watch is LB Eric Gentry. A linebacker with a unique build at 6-foot-6, 225 pounds, Gentry is a fluid athlete and I think the best value he brings to the NFL is as a potential matchup piece against the tight end. This is a good case study for that assessment. 

After dark, I’ll have eyes on the SEC tilt between Florida and Tennessee. Vols EDGE Joshua Josephs is an explosive speed rusher, and he’ll see some reps against Gators T Austin Barber. I’m not as high on Barber as others are, but I do think he’s solid across the board. I’ll be taking a peek at that BYU vs Cincinnati game as well in the Big 12. Bearcats LB Jake Golday is a big, versatile piece at the second-level. He lines up all over the place and his versatility will be put on display against a BYU offense that I just enjoy watching every week. The tip of the spear for the Cougars is RB LJ Martin, a big, physical back downhill who also does a lot of dirty work as a blocker out  in front for that team. 

My friend, Ben Fennell (who will join me on the podcast at some point in the near future), made a great point this week on social media.

It’s the nature of fandom and analysis in today’s world, but I think it is really important to remember to take in the entire picture with draft prospects and young players in the NFL as well. It can be easy to react to one play, moment, quarter, game, or even a full month, and say ‘case closed’ on the evaluation of that player. The fact is that it just does not work that way. 

Players have bad and good games. Some have bad months. Others have bad years, especially when they’re inexperienced! On one hand, we want to point to the latest success stories of players like Sam Darnold and Jared Goff and Daniel Jones, but the moment a young player looks bad we want to throw the baby out with the bath water. And this isn’t just about quarterbacks, it’s players at every position. Ja’Marr Chase couldn’t catch a cold his first spring and summer in camp, if you were to believe practice reports. Trey McBride couldn’t get on the field as a rookie in Arizona, and a couple of years later he’s going to likely break the record for most catches by a tight end in a season. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was a bust a year ago and was a ‘slot only’ player, and now he’s having the most prolific season in NFL history. I can go on and on, because every team has examples of this. 

Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio shared a quote from the legendary Vikings coach Bud Grant earlier this fall, that for every rookie you play, add a loss to your loss column. When young players play, they’re going to take their lumps. Some guys it can be more evident than others - but how do they respond from it? Do you start to see incremental improvements? This is something to keep in mind as we watch players in preparation for the draft. Are the areas of struggle points that can improve quickly? Or will it take time? Keep the big picture in mind! 

Next week is Rivalry Weekend in College Football … we’re getting close to the finish line!

Best,

Fran Duffy

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