The 2021 NFL Draft Revisited: What I Got Right & What I Completely Missed

Hello, hello!

While the 2026 NFL Draft is now, comfortably, behind us - the journey to 2027 is just beginning. Over the course of the summer, I’m going to get back into the routine of sending you a weekly email (it got a bit crazy for me there in the peak of Pro Day season in the lead-up to the big weekend). One thing I definitely wanted to do this summer was offer a look back at a few drafts ago, where did I hit and where did I miss? Were they any lessons to be learned? Let’s go back to the 2021 NFL Draft and see what we can find.

WHY 2021?

We are in the height of ‘Draft Grade’ season. We’ll see the ‘Re-draft Last Year’s NFL Draft’ articles in the fall. Hell, I’m already seeing ‘Lessons Learned From The 2026 Draft’ content pieces out there. If you follow me, you know that I go about my process a bit differently. When I put my Big Board together, I do not care about where a player is projected to get drafted when I am putting together my final report. Instead, I’m trying to project how a player will look once he gets into the league and then, off of that, how they’ll be valued. With that in mind, it truly does take a few years for me to look back at a class and get an ideal sense of how I performed (though with some players I obviously know much earlier than that). 

2021 was a crazy draft cycle. Covid-19 greatly impacted the 2020 calendar, with shortened seasons and opt-outs all through the class. I did not go to an All-Star Game that January. There was no Combine. It was unique for everybody. I shared a lot of my thoughts on these players on my old podcast at the time, but this is the first time I’m sharing my board, publicly, from that year. I wrote up over 300 players that year (the lack of travel gave me more time for evals), and here is how the Top 100 looked on my horizontal board.

Keep in mind, this was a bit before I placed strict rules on ‘positional value’ in my board, as dictated by player contracts. I thought about adjusting for that in the version I shared with you, but for the sake of transparency, I figured I’d just keep it as it was. Alright, here’s the Top 100 on the horizontal board:

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

USC | Big Board Rank: 24 | Position Rank: 6 | Draft Slot: 112 (Rd 4)

Scouting Report: A 2-year starter with solid size who lined up all over the field throughout his career and was successful. Outside, inside, backfield - it didn't matter. He gets off the jam, he gets to top speed quickly, he's sharp in and out of cuts, he plays the ball well in the air, he's competitive, he's a leader. There aren't a lot of holes in this kid's game. I feel like he can play inside or outside in the NFL, X or Z, and fit into an NFL offense. He may never be a ball-dominant 'No. 1', but he's going to be a really good pro that defenses must account for every week.

What made me so confident in St. Brown was his well-rounded skillset and competitiveness from snap-to-whistle (which has become increasingly important for me). He had a pro game from the jump, and even though he didn’t test well I saw a guy with all of the movement skills to thrive inside. 

DL Milton Williams

Louisiana Tech | Big Board Rank: 30 | Position Rank: 2 | Draft Slot: 73 (Rd 3)

Scouting Report: This is a high-character kid with position flexibility who has added weight and figures to be a full-time player inside. A converted edge player who just recently moved inside to tackle as a junior, he's a quick-twitch athlete with disruptive ability against the run and the pass, but he doesn't just rely on his feet to win. He has heavy hands to jar opponents on contact and plays extremely hard on every snap. He was consistently productive as a two-year starter, and I believe that will carry over to the NFL as a starting 3-technique tackle who can slide up and down the line. He is scheme-versatile and should be able to find a home for anyone.

My player comp on Williams was Malik Jackson, who had a very similar skillset as a hybrid player coming out of USC several years earlier and turned into a really good pro. What really struck me about Williams was that it was not just about his athleticism, but he was also a really good run defender. He played with good technique and had a want-to in that phase of the game that you wouldn’t expect for a guy with his skillset kicking inside for the first time. That remains to this day in New England. 

EDGE Odafe Oweh

Penn State | Big Board Rank: 15 | Position Rank: 2 | Draft Slot: 31 (Rd 1)

Scouting Report: A 1-year starter with all of the tools you could want. A well-built kid and a rare athlete for the position with ability to win with both speed and power. He's not a technician right now, and his effort waned as a junior in 2020, his lone year as a starter when he failed to record a sack. He struggles tracking the football and plays a bit out of control at times. If he can be reigned in and coached up, by Year 3 he could be one of the league's best. Has solid ability against the run. His ceiling is higher than any other edge rusher in the 2021 class; a potential star in this league who, at his floor, should fill in as a nice rotational piece as long as the character is ok.

Looking back, I feel good about my placement and evaluation of Oweh. He clearly did not reach his ceiling (or at least he has not to this point), but his traits are good enough that he has been a really effective piece whenever he’s on the field. He got paid near the top of the market this spring in free agency after being a key part of the Chargers’ defense. One of my comparisons for him was Marcus Davenport who, when healthy, has been an explosive pocket pusher and impactful role player, but with the tools to develop into so much more. That was how I viewed Oweh; the ceiling was sky-high, but I felt good enough about the floor to give him a higher grade than consensus. It is not all that dissimilar to how I looked at Keldric Faulk this past cycle, though I felt just a touch better about Faulk than I did Oweh.

Other Options:

EDGE Azeez Ojulari

Georgia | Big Board Rank: 9 | Position Rank: 1 | Draft Slot: 50 (Rd 2)

Scouting Report: Undersized, explosive pass rusher who will threaten the corner from Day 1, but he's more than just a high-side speed rusher. He mixes up his rushes and has a defined plan that all starts with his Long Arm move, and while he lacks power to collapse the pocket he is able to keep tackles on their toes with his varied plans of attack and ability to win with both speed and technique. A very good athlete for the position who accepts contact and plays with an edge. At his size, can he be more than a package player? I think so. I think he can be a 1A pass rusher, and while I want him with a runway I think he's scheme versatile as both an OLB and DE. Impact starter; perennial Pro Bowl talent.

I’m a sucker for pass rushers with this body type (longer than he is tall), and Ojulari was really skilled and productive. I knew about the ACL injury from high school, and there was definitely concern from some about his ability to hold up long-term. That turned out to be the case, unfortunately, as Ojulari struggled to stay healthy early in his career. Despite being productive early on, by the time he reached the end of his rookie contract, his athleticism was already in steep decline. I should not have ignored the durability concerns. 

S Hamsah Nasirldeen

Florida State | Big Board Rank: 27 | Position Rank: 3 | Draft Slot: 186 (Rd 6)

Scouting Report: Long, explosive athlete with the skillset to be a truly interchangeable piece and 'positionless player' on the back end as a safety / linebacker hybrid. He's a bit green still, especially after missing most of 2020 with an injury, but the tools are there to be a Good Starter and a playmaker on the back end of a defense. Powerful kid on contact who has a mean streak and can lay a lick on opponents in the alley while also serving as a matchup player against dynamic TEs and big slots. I like him most as a pure SS, but again feel he has an interchangeable skillset. Give him a specific role early and let him grow into the scheme. Ceiling of a quality starter as an impactful safety, high floor as a role player in subpackage.

Going back and reading all of my notes, this profile was ridden with red flags. Injuries. Questionable instincts. The dreaded ‘positionless player’ label. There were a lot of lessons to be learned here. One big one? If you’re going to be versatile, then your football IQ has to be incredibly high. My grade on him should have placed him in one of my ‘developmental’ tiers on the horizontal board, which would have dropped him significantly lower on the stack. 

EDGE Boogie Basham

Wake Forest | Big Board Rank: 23 | Position Rank: 3 | Draft Slot: 61 (Rd 2)

Scouting Report: 3-year starter with a thick frame and a non-stop motor. His effort pops off the film, and I thought as a senior he played with more violence and ferocity off the edge. A rangy athlete with burst to close and better flexibility and change of direction than most linemen his size. He has scheme and position versatility with ability to stand up outside or kick inside on pass downs. He's strong, he's powerful, he can win with his hands, and he's always going 100 mph. He's a 3-down player in the NFL, and while he may never be viewed as a Top 5 pass rusher in the league, he'll be a good starter for a long time. You don't want to take this guy off the field.

Basham is out of the league already, so this one was a complete whiff. His weight was an issue in the early stages of his career, and with that not being in check any semblance of athleticism he had early in the down to threaten the edge was gone. 

Other Options:

WR Terrace Marshall

LSU | Big Board Rank: 175 | Position Rank: 26 | Draft Slot: 59 (Rd 2)

Scouting Report: 2-year starter who is 6'2 and runs 4.4 - so there's certainly a base to work with - and he was productive whenever he's on the field. That being said, there's not much to get excited about with this player. He has a long way to go. He's not a technician, would need to be protected early on, isn't a plus athlete, and fights the ball a bit. IWould need to start his career in the slot before proving that he can get off press coverage enough to play X - where I think his ceiling is as a flash player and average starter. There's boom-bust potential with this player, and if taken high I think he will have a tough road to live up to that draft slot.

Marshall was the classic case of a big body who ran better than his film projected as a master of the contested catch. We see this profile again and again, and it can be hard to pick through to find the ones that hit amongst the many that don’t. 

G Jalen Mayfield

Michigan | Big Board Rank: 121 | Position Rank: 16 | Draft Slot: 68 (Rd 3)

Scouting Report: A high-ceiling two-year starter who just has not played a ton of football. He's got good size, is extremely young, and is a pretty good athlete. That will serve him well. However, he's a mess technically in both the run game and the pass game; he'd get handled in a game right now. How much of it is fixable? And how quickly? I can't answer that, but even at his best this is not a phonebooth player who will move people on contact. He's got to get a bit stronger to hold up better in pass pro. Tools to work with but little show for it. Developmental Starter with a high ceiling and a low floor.

If you have read the DieHard Draft Guide, then you know that I color code my notes (blue for positive and red for negative). The Mayfield report had a lot of red and not much blue. He got better as a finisher in 2020 but the previous year I did not see the compete levels that I wanted for a player with his tools, and that was something I could never shake in my projection. 

WR Kadarius Toney

Florida | Big Board Rank: 95 | Position Rank: 14 | Draft Slot: 20 (Rd 1)

Scouting Report: Lightning in a bottle and a big play waiting to happen on offense and special teams. Definitely some buyer beware; has a history of injuries and some questions away from football; he never really found a cemented role in the offense until his final season, but in a big play league he can create big plays in a lot of ways. Some boom-bust to him but he's got the ability to be a good slot WR - I just don't know if he's ever even a true 'No. 2' for an offense. Will need manufactured touches early until he improves as a route runner. He's a freelancer in that area now. Risk involved but he's a fun study who I think will make it in the league.

As I alluded to in the last line of the report, Toney was a fun player to study, but I struggled envisioning him having more than a complementary role on offense, and that was at his ceiling. The idea of him was always more than the reality. 

Other Options:

T Rashawn Slater

Northwestern | Big Board Rank: 64 | Position Rank: 6 | Draft Slot: 13 (Rd 1)

Scouting Report: A powerful lineman with bear trap hands and a finisher's mentality. He's been a tackle, but I think he's much better off sliding inside. On the perimeter, edge rushers will give him trouble, and even at guard or center he's going to have some issue with speed and quickness. He's not a dancing bear. He struggles redirecting at times vs inside moves, and when he's stressed by speed and quickness, he often gets caught with a wide base and driven backwards into the QB. He's at his best in a phone booth, and he fits best in a vertical displacement run scheme. Not a dominant starter in the NFL, and not a fit for everyone, but a solid starter who will be better in the run game than the pass game.

Yep, I flat out missed this one. I tried several times to like Slater, as I knew I was lower on him than everyone. There were some bad reps where I really questioned his anchor, and I couldn’t get past that. 

EDGE Greg Rousseau

Miami | Big Board Rank: 118 | Position Rank: 11 | Draft Slot: 30 (Rd 1)

Scouting Report: I see the upside, but I think he's much further away from reaching that ceiling than most in the media. He's long and athletic and productive, but I don't see a violent player, I don't see a guy with a well-thought out plan of attack against offensive linemen, I don't see a particularly strong run defender. He's got to be schemed around right now because he relies on his athleticism to win. I wish that I got to know more about the kid off the field, but I think there's a lot of buyer beware here based off tape study. Not a starter right away but could come in on sub downs. Ability to be a 3-down player, but patience is needed.

Re-reading the full extent of the notes, I actually feel like I was right in my evaluation of Rousseau, he just hit on the high-end of my expected outcomes. I do wish I had greater belief in him being able to do so, but this is a case of the report being more ‘right’ than how I had him ranked in the stack. 

G Landon Dickerson

Alabama | Big Board Rank: 113 | Position Rank: 13 | Draft Slot: 37 (Rd 2)

Scouting Report: He's going to have to clear medically, but overall he's a solid player. I don't think he'll ever be a true impact starter up front, but with his size, strength, smarts and toughness he has the tools to be a reliable player on the inside for a long time in the right system that doesn't prioritize athleticism on the interior. Not a guy that's going to be a weapon in space, but otherwise he's more than capable across the board. At the end of the day, I think I prefer him at guard over center, but he can be fine at either.

The miss on Dickerson here was simple; the medical history bumped him down the board. Two knee surgeries and a serious foot injury for a big man were tough for me to get over, and that red flag weighed him down. Had I chosen to look past it, he would have been in the 40s. I had the film evaluation right. 

Other Options:

I hope you guys enjoyed the look into the wayback machine. This is something - again - that I’m CONSTANTLY doing throughout the year. As I’m studying NFL tape throughout the fall, I always have access to all of my old scouting reports to players and look back to see what I wrote about them when they were in college. The learning and evolving never stops!

If you have thoughts or takeaways that you’d like to share - hit me back on this email with a reply!

Best,

Fran Duffy

PS — I spent a lot of time this week fine-tuning my evaluation of Texas Tech QB Brendan Sorsby, who I believe will be forced to enter the Supplemental Draft this summer, based on reports of his gambling addiction that has plagued him throughout his college career. With that in mind, I’ll provide a full scouting report on him next week in this email and I’ll be joined by the great Greg Cosell at NFL Films over on the ALL NFL Draft Podcast to go through both of our thoughts on him as a player and how he translates to the league. So stay tuned for that!