The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year!

Hello, hello, and Happy Holidays! 

We have playoff games. We have underclassman news. We have bowl game results. We have All-Star game acceptances. My brain is spinning — let’s roll!

Top underclassmen with eligibility remaining continue to throw their hats into the ring for the 2026 NFL Draft. Here are three of the biggest names of the week, with a nugget or two from their scouting reports (which you can find, in full, in the Draft Guide). 

It’s important to note that these announcements are not binding, and there are examples every year of players who say they’re going to declare for the draft before ultimately deciding to return to school or to instead enter the Transfer Portal. It goes the other way, as well, where players may announce they’re returning to school but could still change their minds a couple of weeks from now before January’s deadline. 

This week on the podcast I shared my six highest-graded players currently announced for both the Shrine Bowl and Senior Bowl, as of the recording on Wednesday afternoon. In typical podcast fashion, that timed out pretty quickly, as a couple of BIG announcements hit the timeline afterwards. Here are my thoughts on a couple of the latest additions…

In what has arguably been the biggest get for the Senior Bowl so far, Texas Tech EDGE David Bailey pledged to the game (along with several of his teammates). Bailey is widely viewed as a first-round pick and has one of the most explosive first steps in the nation. Is he consistent enough against the run to warrant three-down consideration on defense? That is honestly the biggest question people will have, and it will determine if he does go that high next April. My guess is, if Texas Tech wins their first playoff game, we will not see Bailey (or any of the other Red Raiders) in Mobile.

I’m a bit lower than consensus on Bailey, but I think I’m higher than most on NC State TE Justin Joly. A former receiver with athleticism to be a mismatch in space, Joly (pronounced like Angelina ‘Jolie’) certainly can impress as a pass catcher - but I think he’s underrated as a blocker. Watching him this fall I really came to appreciate his competitiveness, and I think he absolutely can be a three-down player for an NFL offense. 

Those two players got announced late on Wednesday, but on Thursday I actually got to study a player heading to Mobile that I had previously not gotten eyes on. Texas A&M TE Nate Boerkircher played his first few seasons at Nebraska, where he was a part-time starter the last couple of seasons. He transferred this offseason, became the full-time guy for the Aggies and, honestly, I was really impressed when I studied him. Boerkircher is athletic and he has explosive traits that show up down the seam. He catches everything. There’s upside there as a pass catcher despite his lack of production. That said, he’s also a very competent blocker; he runs his feet constantly and will get after linebackers and safeties both in the trenches and out in space. He’s currently my TE3 behind Joly and my top player at the position, Oregon’s Kenyon Sadiq.

For the Shrine Bowl, the biggest name in the last 48 hours belongs to Indiana S Louis Moore. One of the biggest playmakers for the undefeated Hoosiers, Moore has been a ball magnet this year on the back end, earning 1st-Team All-Big 10 honors after the regular season before pulling in another interception in the conference title game vs Ohio State. A seventh-year senior, Moore turns 25 years old next month - and that will affect his overall draft slot - but there’s enough there that should still put him in the middle rounds of the draft.

I watched one Aggie on Thursday for the first time in Boerkircher, and I hit his teammate for the first time the day before as well in Texas A&M RT Dametrious Crownover. The redshirt senior is far from perfect and, in fact, he has some ugly reps strewn throughout his tape that could prove to be an issue this weekend (more on that later), but his upside is undeniable. He’s a big (6-foot-7, 336 pounds), physical mauler at the point of attack with pop to move defenders in the run game. His best reps in pass protection show a guy that can get off the ball and meet speed rushers with a strong anchor at the top of the rush. That said, his technique is all over the place and he needs plenty of seasoning. Crownover reminds me a bit of former Houston T Patrick Paul, who ended up being a second-round pick by the Miami Dolphins. He didn’t play much in his rookie season as a backup to Terron Armstead, but took over as the starter this year and has done a pretty nice job. I can see a similar type of pathway for Crownover, who I expect to go off the board sometime in the Top 60. Speaking of the Dolphins…

Miami benched former first-round pick QB Tua Tagovailoa this week, and any time a team makes a big decision like this, my mind often drifts back to the projection and what are the lessons that can be learned. Tua was my QB4 when he came out back in 2020, and I had him a clear tier below Joe Burrow, Jordan Love and Justin Herbert. The medical concerns certainly had something to do with that projection, but the skillset also had his film grade behind that trio as well. At the end of the day, this comes down to something I think about all the time with players inside their specific positions. 

Almost every player has limitations. Every prospect has areas where they can improve. Having an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses is important, but you also have to weigh how important those strengths and weaknesses are to the type of player he is going to be in the NFL and what he’ll need in order to win. 

If you’re a tight end who doesn’t block all that well, then you have to be an excellent receiver to offset that. If you have issues with drops, it makes it hard to move past it. If you’re a cornerback with just average speed, then you must overcome that with instincts, ballskills and/or toughness. If you’re a linebacker that struggles in coverage, then you have to be a good blitzer or you can’t be on the field at all on third down. You get the idea!

For Tagovailoa, he’s never been a great athlete who could create with his legs. He’s a pure pocket passer. The problem? He doesn’t have a huge arm. In fact, it’s probably below average by NFL standards. So if he’s not threatening defenses with his legs and he’s not scaring them with his arm, that puts a severe cap on how he can play winning football. He must have outstanding accuracy. He must have outstanding timing and anticipation. He must handle muddy pockets well. At his best - he can do that, but if those things start to fall off, it’s a house of cards, and it all comes tumbling down fast. 

Every August during final cut downs, people like to say some form of the statement ‘the more you can do, the longer you can last.’ This applies to the draft as well, whether you’re talking about first-round quarterbacks or late-round safeties. 

As I mentioned earlier, this week on the show I offered my thoughts on the six highest-graded players who have accepted invites to the two major All-Star games on this week’s show, but that’s at the very end. To begin the episode I was happy to welcome in former NFL scout Rodrik David to talk about the life of a scout during the month of December. As final reports are due around the league, what does that process entail for area scouts? What are the stressors that come into play? Then, what do December meetings look like to tee up the rest of the scouting process? I talked about all of that with Rodrik before we jumped into this weekend’s games to break down the biggest matchups we’re excited to see in the first round of the College Football Playoff. Speaking of which …

I’m going to take a bit of a different spin here in this section this week, as I’ll pick an ‘X Factor’ player to watch in each of these four first-round games in the College Football Playoff while also giving you a prediction on the game as a whole.

Let’s start first with Friday night’s matchup between Alabama and Oklahoma. This is a rematch from a few weeks ago, which Oklahoma won down in Tuscaloosa. I actually like the Tide to get revenge here. They’re healthier than they were two weeks ago in the SEC Championship loss to Georgia. I expect the ‘Palace on the Prairie’ to be rocking, and it won’t be easy, but I expect QB Ty Simpson and company to go into Norman and take care of business. If I’m wrong, it’s because the Sooners defense changes the game. I like that group as a whole, and they have talent at all three levels. The player I want to spotlight actually didn’t even play in this matchup from last month, and that’s Oklahoma EDGE R Mason Thomas. Thomas has a fast first step and the ability to turn the corner. I expect him to give talented Alabama LT Kadyn Proctor everything he can handle. Proctor has been better of late, but is known as a player that can be a bit volatile in pass protection. If Thomas catches him on a bad rep, he can get home to Simpson, who has been prone to putting the ball on the ground in the second half of the season. Like I said, I like the Tide, but I can envision this scenario playing out in a high-leverage moment to make me look bad. 

Now to the first Saturday game, and this is the matchup I am most excited to see this weekend with Miami traveling to College Station to take on Texas A&M. All of the home teams were favorites in these matchups last year, and all of the home teams won in the first round. I’m picking my second road team of the weekend here. I think Miami wins this one. Experienced quarterbacks have typically served their teams well in the College Football Playoff, and while Miami QB Carson Beck has not always shined under the brightest lights, I don’t think the moment will be too big for him, either. He has some electric receivers and a sturdy offensive line, but I think they win this one on defense. My X Factor is EDGE Ruben Bain JR. He’s going to see a lot of reps against RT Dametrious Crownover, who I broke down earlier, but when I do a ‘Tale of the Tape’ between those two, I think this matchup tilts in Bain’s favor. His power, physicality and savviness give him the edge, and I can see him pushing the pocket in a critical moment and getting home to A&M QB Marcel Reed, who can be an absolute roller coaster ride (which is both good and bad). Give me the Canes here on the road.

In the next matchup between Ole Miss and visiting Tulane, we get another rematch from earlier this season when the Rebels beat the Green Wave in convincing fashion. Things are a bit different now, for a handful of reasons, and I’ve bounced around with this game in my head over the course of this week. With all of the drama surrounding Ole Miss and the departure of coach Lane Kiffin to LSU, one could perceive that as a major distraction. The pressure is on those remaining in Oxford. You’ve already beaten this team once, now you have to do it again and prove that you’re more than just the marionettes with Kiffin pulling the strings. If Tulane were on more solid footing, I might have the guts to pick them here, but their coach (Jon Sumrall) left for Florida. He’s coaching in this game, but it’s still unlikely to be the same for the AAC champions. Give me Ole Miss here, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Tulane covers. The X Factor here is Ole Miss RB Kewan Lacy. The sophomore has been on an absolute tear this year as one of the top rushers in the SEC. He’s ineligible for this draft, but he’s someone I’m excited to study further in the summer.

In the night cap we have the ultimate underdog in James Madison making the cross-country trip out west to Oregon. I’d love to pull for the little guy here, but I struggle envisioning a scenario where the Ducks don’t make this a laugher. They got waxed in their lone postseason game last year against Ohio State, where they were undefeated and seemed to lost momentum after a bye week. Here in this one, I think they hit the ground running in the playoffs and keep rolling. The guy I will be watching closest here? Oregon QB Dante Moore. There’s been a lot of discussion around Moore, a third-year sophomore who could declare for this draft. Will he put his hat into the ring now that OC Will Stein left to be the head coach at Kentucky? Or will the Ducks be able to keep him on campus? If he comes out and looks sharp with a healthier receiving corps than he’s had for (at least) the last two months that could get him into a groove going into the second round. 

On one hand, these playoff games are important. It’s great to see players shine on the biggest stage and make plays in the postseason. That said, I am a big believer in not overweighing a one-game sample. Just how I don’t bump a guy up a tier because of a big conference title game or a big performance in Week 1, Week 6 or Week 10. The games obviously matter, but don’t go overboard in pushing a guy up or down the board because of a performance this weekend. 

In the 2023 NFL Draft, four receivers went off the board in consecutive picks in the middle of the first round. Jaxson Smith-Njigba went first, followed by Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison, in that order. I’m not saying this is what the Chargers did, but if you pushed Johnston up the board slightly over the other guys because he had 160 yards in the title game win over Michigan that January, it would have been a bad process. 

Every step along the way matters, and it’s important to apply the proper context to everything as we go!

Quick note - I won’t have a newsletter next week - I hope everyone has a great holiday! I will get a note into your inbox before the next round of College Football Playoff action, though! So expect an email from me in the middle of the week before those New Years games! 

Happy Holidays everyone!

Fran Duffy

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