Jumping the gun on a junior QB?

Hello, hello!

We only have three weeks left of the college football regular season. Let that sink in! We are in the home stretch, and there’s only so much time left for players to make a lasting statement with what they put on tape. Some guys took advantage of that last week (more on that in a bit), but the hay is almost completely in the proverbial barn! This has been a highly-entertaining season at both the college and NFL levels, so I’m excited to see what the final laps look like. 

This week on the ALL NFL Draft Podcast, I was joined by former NFL GM and long-time analyst Mike Mayock to talk through this ever-evolving college landscape, what it means for the draft process, as well as his evaluation process, ‘positionless players’ on defense, and so much more. It was a really fun conversation, and if you enjoy this newsletter - I think you’ll like this podcast too! Get it wherever you get your podcasts, but here’s the Apple Podcasts link if that’s your preferred outlet!

Here’s a taste of that conversation:

With that, here’s what else is on my mind!

PRO TIP: To easily watch the embedded videos as you read, view this post in your browser.

After my conversation with Mike on the podcast this week, I shared my initial scouting report on Alabama QB Ty Simpson, and I wanted to be crystal-clear about my process on this one, because he does currently have the top grade on my quarterback stack right now for 2026, if he were to come out.

I try to get eyes on any underclassmen that builds buzz during the first half of the college football season, but as we get into the middle of October, my attention starts to shift. Before the landscape changed, most of the ‘big name’ underclassmen would declare for the draft. That’s no longer the case, and with so many players deciding that they want to go back to school for another year, I choose to be economical with my time and focus on players who I’m more certain will be in the upcoming class. If there’s an underclassman that I don’t get to, I’m perfectly fine waiting until late January to study them, once the All-Star Game circuit has come to a close.

I broke that rule for Simpson.

Simpson has starting traits in the NFL, but I’m not talking about size, athleticism and arm strength. There’s a nuance to the way he plays that is fairly uncommon at the college level, particularly for a guy in his first year as a starter in the SEC. Now, this comes with the caveat that he has spent his entire life around a Division 1 football team, as Simpson’s father has been the head coach at UT-Martin since he was four years old. Does one year of starting experience give me the willies? Yes. Is that enough to keep a team from taking him in the Top 10? No. Will it work out if/when it happens? We’ll have to wait and see. 

All that said - I liked the film a lot. Simpson doesn’t have the jaw-dropping physical tools that others do, which may cap his ultimate ceiling, but he plays a game that translates well to the league. He looks like a starting quarterback in the NFL. I still think there’s a decent chance he returns to Tuscaloosa next year, and I think he’d be best served doing so, but I wouldn’t have put the time in to study him this week if I didn’t think there was a good possibility that he’d enter this class. 

Speaking of Simpson, he was a player mentioned in Pete Thamel’s piece last week for ESPN that tried to predict who would be the first quarterback off the board in April. This was the second version of this article, which he first rolled out in September, and the list looked RADICALLY different just a handful of weeks ago.

Thamel (who is one of the best in the business), polled 25 NFL scouts and executives, and Simpson received three votes. Ahead of him were Oregon QB Dante Moore (6) and Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza (13). I don’t know how many of the people that Thamel spoke with were area scouts (who are only familiar with their specific area of the country) vs national scouts or higher-level executives (who may have studied quarterbacks from all around college football), but here’s how I look at that conundrum. If I trust the reporter, I trust the sources. Thamel is excellent - so I’m sure he put the work in to make sure these votes were made by evaluators who have the right context.

As far as those quarterbacks are concerned, it just so happened that both of those players ahead of Simpson had Heisman-esque moments on Saturday.

Moore, who is currently my QB3, led the Ducks to a come-from-behind victory here in nasty conditions to beat Iowa, highlighted by a gem of a ball down the right sideline.

Mendoza, similarly, led Indiana to victory on a final drive against Penn State on the road in Happy Valley.

This has become a bit of a theme for Mendoza, as I laid out in that post. His late game heroics will serve as catnip for some evaluators. 

As we sit here in the middle of November, I expect Moore to return to school for another season, and I lean towards Mendoza coming out. That’s just my read on those situations at this stage of the calendar.

As someone who studied, literally, every single snap of Jason Kelce’s career - I have an affinity for smaller, quicker offensive linemen. That said, I was thinking about something this week regarding offensive lines around the league as I was going through the tape of the Green Bay Packers offense against the Philadelphia Eagles. 

In the 2010s and the early stages of the 2020s, a lot of teams were utilizing a heavy dose of zone blocking with an emphasis on stretching defenses horizontally in the run game. It was a running game that was more focused on getting the edge against the defense. 

In recent years, I do think we’ve seen a bit of a shift. More teams are running ‘Duo’ at a high rate, and there’s a little more of a ‘smash mouth’ element to some of the best offenses in football. We’re seeing that play out this year with heavier rates of ‘jumbo’ sets with six offensive linemen on the field. There’s more of an ‘at you’ element league-wide with the way they approach the rushing attack. 

With that in mind, I think there’s a bit more openness now to the ‘power’ player up front as opposed to the more prototypical ‘zone blocker’ in the league today. Don’t get me wrong, there is plenty of room for both skillsets, and every team is going to search out what they want for their identity on offense, but I think more teams are looking for the big, physical people-movers up front as opposed to the quick, technically-sound blockers on the run. 

Going back to why I was thinking about this while watching the Green Bay Packers…they have really struggled to be an efficient running team this year, and when I look from left to right across that front - they don’t have anyone who brings that type of presence. They spent a second-round pick this spring on Anthony Belton from NC State, who brings that skillset, but he has been unable to crack the lineup thus far. 

I think I was already trending this way a bit in the summer; it’s why Penn State G Olaivavega Ioane was my top interior lineman entering the season. I mentioned how much I like Rutledge from Georgia Tech earlier in this email. It’s why I continue to have high grades on guys like Alabama T Kadyn Proctor or Auburn T Xavier Chaplin, despite their struggles in the pass game. Those guys can MOVE people against their will in the run game. Whether it’s at tackle or guard, I think there may be a bit more love for players with that type of skillset throughout this draft process. 

The Senior Bowl has yet to send out their first round of invitations, and the Shrine Bowl will be announcing initial ‘official’ acceptances in the coming weeks. That said, college programs are leaking out some of the early invitations to Dallas. 

This week, Georgia Tech G Keylan Rutledge confirmed his invitation. I wrote to you about Rutledge last week as one of the latest additions to my Top 50, so check out last week’s newsletter if you missed that one! 

A couple of other line of scrimmage players got confirmed invitations to the Shrine this week as well.

Illinois T JC Davis and EDGE Gabe Jacas were two players that were potentially going to enter the 2025 NFL Draft but decided to go back to school this fall. I think both have high floors entering the league, but I currently have them graded closer to ‘backup’ level as opposed to ‘starter’. 

You can check out full write-ups of both players in the Diehard Draft Guide, but here’s the skinny on both players. I like Davis more in the run game than in the pass game, where some athletic limitations could get the best of him if he’s forced into a starting role. I like Jacas’ ceiling a bit more. The four-year starter (whose last name is pronounced ‘ACK-us’, by the way) is really strong and he competes well at the point of attack. Like Davis, I think he’s capped by average, at best, athleticism, but I think he can be a useful piece up front as a power and leverage player who can hold the point in the run game and collapse the pocket with length in a complementary role. Both are certainly draftable, but probably closer to the early stages of Day 3.

Let’s do a speed round for the first window on Saturday, because there are a number of ‘scouter’s delights’ to kick off the slate at 12pm ET. Texas A&M takes on South Carolina, we obviously get Gamecocks QB LaNorris Sellers and all of his physical gifts going up against a talented Mike Elko defense. EDGE Cassius Howell wins with speed but will need to bring it to get Sellers to the ground, but A&M has players at all three levels for Sellers to contend with. Junior LB Taurean York and senior CB Will Lee III are names to watch; Lee has a physically-imposing frame and has the size to match with WR Nyck Harbor on the outside. With Pitt and Notre Dame, the Irish will face one of the tougher run defenses on their schedule. They have my top two running backs on my board in Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, but Panthers LB Kyle Louis will be patrolling the middle to keep them locked up. Lastly, Northwestern LT Caleb Tiernan is a personal favorite of mine; he’s been good in the games I’ve studied so far, particularly in pass protection. He gets a good test against Michigan’s defensive line with two senior edge rushers at the top of the depth chart. EDGE Derrick Moore is a good speed-to-power rusher and will test Tiernan’s anchor. EDGE Jaishawn Barham made the move full-time to the edge this fall after beginning the season at off-ball linebacker, he presents a speed threat off the corner. 

In the afternoon window, the spotlight game on ABC is Oklahoma on the road against Alabama. There are a few matchups to watch here, and my big one of note is going to be Alabama LT Kadyn Proctor against Oklahoma EDGE R Mason Thomas. Proctor is one of the most powerful blockers in the nation, but he’s been a very volatile pass protector this year. His ability to defend speed will be put to the test this week against Thomas, who has a good get-off and can turn the corner as well as anyone in the country. I talked about Simpson at the top of this email, and he’ll see a bunch of NFL talent this week on that Sooner defense aside from Thomas. DT Gracen Halton is a disruptive player on the interior. S Robert Spears-Jennings is an intimidating presence on the back end. LB Kendal Daniels is an explosive athlete in the middle of the field. I saw this Oklahoma team live earlier in the fall, they’ve got talent up and down the depth chart.

For the evening slate, the game with the highest stakes also happens to be in the SEC where Texas goes between the hedges to take on Georgia. I’m a big fan of Longhorns CB Malik Muhammad; I love his instincts and competitiveness. They’ll match him up with receivers and have him travel across the field at times. I’m interested to see how much action he gets against the diminutive but dynamic WR Zachariah Branch. The Bulldog receiver has the athletic advantage but I think Muhammad is the better football player. That could make for a fun back-and-forth. This is a big ‘prove it’ moment for Texas QB Arch Manning. He’s played better of late, but this is the biggest stage for him and for the Longhorns since that Week 1 loss at Ohio State. I think the ship has almost certainly sailed for Manning being a part of the 2026 class, but this is a big moment for him to build off of. I’m excited to see what he looks like against a Georgia defense that may lack the starpower of years past, but still has quality talent. My favorite player from that defense is one of their tempo setters in LB CJ Allen. A bulldog to his bones, Allen is a rock solid presence inside and can impact the game in a number of ways. I see an easy projection as an NFL starter with his film. 

Enjoy another full slate of football … we don’t have too many of these weekends left!

Best,

Fran Duffy

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